Buy Hold Sell, by Livewire Markets

The top macro indicators to watch in 2023

After a 15-year slumber, macro returned with a vengeance in 2022.

Unsurprisingly, the past year may have investors feeling a little wary about how central banks will fare in their race to bring inflation back to target. And inflation is only one part of the story.

As part of our Outlook Series for 2023, we asked nine fund managers who keep a close eye on the big picture to share the top macro indicators worth watching over the next 12 months, as well as what it could take for investors to start feeling a lot more bullish.

And in a world where the impact of record-breaking inflation on earnings is still unclear, 2023 is shaping up to be another year where the macro could dictate the narrative in financial markets once again.

 

Guest order in this podcast: 

• Andrew Clifford, Platinum Asset Management
• Catherine Allfrey, WaveStone Capital 
• Anthony Aboud, Perpetual Asset Management 
• Mary Manning, Alphinity Investment Management 
• Oscar Oberg, Wilson Asset Management 
• Ben Clark, TMS Capital 
• Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management
• Jun Bei Liu, Tribeca Investment Partners 
• Romano Sala Tenna, Katana Asset Management

 

Note: We would like to thank the fund managers for sharing their insights ahead of 2023 in the spirit of the Outlook Series. This is not, nor is it intended to be, a set of recommendations. Please do your own research and seek advice from a professional before making any investment decisions of your own. 

This podcast was recorded on the 6th of December 2022. You read an edited transcript below: 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-top-macro-indicators-to-watch-in-2023 

No bears here: The 6 bulls you’ll meet in 2023

Market crashes. Hard landing recession talk. Interest rate rises. And to top it all off, we even missed out on a Santa Rally in December and started the year in the red across all sectors.

The scene is set for a fairly nasty year by any account. So you would be forgiven for expecting 2023 to be the year for the bears.

Instead, six of Melbourne's finest market experts believe it’s time to ignore the market noise and look to greener pastures ahead.

 

Guest order in this podcast: 

• Marcus Padley, Marcus Today
• Michael Goldberg, Collins St Asset Management
• Robert Gregory, Glenmore Asset Management 
• Dion Hershan, Yarra Capital Management
• Nick Sladen, LSN Capital Partners
• Nick Griffin, Munro Partners

Note: The information provided is not intended to be a recommendation. Please do your own research and seek advice from a professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.

You can read an edited transcript below. These interviews were filmed on 13 December 2022.

 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/no-bears-here-the-6-bulls-you-ll-meet-in-2023 

The #1 stock picks for 2023

Well, folks, we made it through 2022. And what a year it was. Inflation soared for the first time in decades, interest rates lifted at frightening velocity, and bonds posted their worst year in history.

Now, more than ever, expert analysis and ideas are paramount. So, as part of our Outlook Series for 2023, Livewire reached out to 15 of the country's most respected fund managers for their highest conviction ideas for the year ahead.

While last year's picks were no match for the new market regime, previous years' have performed exceptionally well. So sit back, relax and enjoy this year's best stock ideas.

 

Speaker order: 

• Romano Sala Tenna, Katana Asset Management 
• Nick Griffin, Munro Partners 
• Jun Bei Liu, Tribeca Investment Partners 
• Marcus Padley, Marcus Today 
• Oscar Oberg, Wilson Asset Management 
• Robert Gregory, Glenmore Asset Management 
• Catherine Allfrey, WaveStone Capital 
• Dion Hershan, Yarra Capital Management 
• Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management 
• Nick Sladen, LSN Capital Partners 
• Mary Manning, Alphinity Investment Management 
• Michael Goldberg, Collins St Asset Management 
• Andrew Clifford, Platinum Asset Management 
• Anthony Aboud, Perpetual Asset Management 
• Ben Clark, TMS Capital 

 

Note: We would like to thank the fund managers for sharing their top stock ideas for the year ahead in the spirit of the Outlook Series. Obviously, all of the fund managers featured in this series run diversified portfolios, and do not invest solely in the stocks mentioned below. This list is not, nor is it intended to be a set of recommendations. Please do your own research and seek advice from a professional before making any investment decisions of your own. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. This vision was filmed on the 6th and 13th of December 2022.

You can read an edited transcript below. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-1-stock-picks-for-2023 

Ouch! 9 painful calls from 2022

Getting things wrong is intrinsically human. From messing up the lyrics to a famous song, telling your significant other to take a left ("No, the other left!"), or investing in a company that ultimately goes sideways, these mistakes can often haunt us, hurt us, or help us improve as humans.

 

But admitting when we got it wrong, well, that's a particularly humble skill.

 

So in the first of our Outlook Series for 2023, nine of Sydney's top fund managers candidly reveal the painful positions that have kept them up at night over the last 12 months.

 

Plus, they share what they have learnt from these calls so that you can become a better investor over the year ahead. 

 

Guest order: 

1. Andrew Clifford, Platinum Asset Management 
2. Anthony Aboud, Perpetual Asset Management 
3. Ben Clark, TMS Capital 
4. Catherine Allfrey, WaveStone Capital 
5. Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management 
6. Jun Bei Liu, Tribeca Investment Partners 
7. Mary Manning, Alphinity Investment Management 
8. Oscar Oberg, Wilson Asset Management 
9. Romano Sala Tenna, Katana Asset Management 

 

Note: These interviews were filmed on the 6th of December 2022. You can read an edited transcript below: 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/ouch-9-painful-calls-from-2022 

 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 stocks for a Santa Rally

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas. Glittering trees adorn every office, the local bars and restaurants are palpable with cheer, and workers are prepping for a well-earned break after what has been a very unusual few years.

But can we expect a Santa Rally into the new year?

Well, according to the Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 has risen 73% of the time in December since 1928, delivering a 1.4% gain on average. Even the tech-heavy NASDAQ has risen 61% of the time during the month since 1971, recording an average return of 1.7%.

But what about the ASX? Here, Bell Direct's Grady Wulff was joined by Blackmore Capital's Marcus Bogdan and Firetrail Investments Blake Henricks for their analysis of five stocks poised for a possible Santa Rally into the new year.

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 23 November 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-stocks-for-a-santa-rally/ 

How to beat the inflation blues (and 2 stocks to do so)

If you've been noticing a little less cash in your wallet recently, it's very likely that inflation is to blame.  

For the 12 months until the end of September, the prices of fruit and vegetables rose more than 16%, while dairy products increased by around 12%. Fuel prices, which thankfully have dropped from their peak, are still up 18% for the year. Energy bills, however, are still on the rise, with gas and other household fuels lifting nearly 11% in the September quarter. Ouch! 

You've probably also noticed that inflation hasn't been kind to share markets. But some sectors (and stocks) are far better placed to play it. 

Here, Bell Direct's Grady Wulff was joined by Blackmore Capital's Marcus Bogdan and Firetrail Investments' Blake Henricks for their thoughts on whether inflation will remain sticky into the new year, as well as the top sectors and stocks to outperform if it remains anywhere above central banks' target levels of 2-3%. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 23 November 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/how-to-beat-the-inflation-blues-and-2-stocks-to-do-so 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 defensives to arm portfolios against future falls

Since hitting a low in September, the S&P/ASX 200 has rebounded a whopping 12.3%. And while markets are typically forward-looking, there are still plenty of headwinds that could see our bourse head south. 

So how can you protect your portfolio? Well, that's where defensives come in.

Defensive stocks typically belong to sectors where there is consistent demand for products or services throughout the economic cycle - such as supermarkets and food suppliers, utility providers, and the myriad of healthcare services. It also includes stocks with long-term track records of delivering consistent earnings in the face of the many challenges the market (and world) may throw at them.  

In this episode, Bell Direct's Grady Wulff makes her Buy Hold Sell debut alongside Firetrail Investment's Blake Henricks and Blackmore Capital's Marcus Bogdan for their analysis of three defensive darlings. 

Plus, they also name their top defensive pick to arm investors' portfolios against any future falls to come. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 23rd November 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-defensives-to-arm-portfolios-against-future-falls/ 

 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 stocks the pros have been buying

If there is one thing we can take away from what has been a very tumultuous 2022, it is that it's been a year of very few winners and many losers. 

Perhaps that's why so many investors are now turning to "expensive defensives", giving up valuation in the hope that these crowded trades will help bolster their portfolios against any future falls that may lay ahead. 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by ClearLife Capital's David Moberley and QVG Capital's Josh Clark for their analysis of five stocks professional investors have been hiding within in recent months. 

And spoiler alert, there's only one that David and Josh can agree upon. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday, November 9th 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-stocks-the-pros-have-been-buying 

Why the pros are still cautious (and whether you should be too)

A recent Bank of America survey found that professional investors are holding their highest levels of cash in 21 years, with the research house's Michael Hartnett declaring the latest survey of 371 global investors "screams macro capitulation, investor capitulation, [and the] start of policy capitulation." 

Despite the negative connotation of the above, this could actually be good news for markets. After all, BofA found that the share of investors who believe rates will lower over the next 12 months doubled to 28% in October, while those who see rates going higher dropped from an early 2022 peak of 92% to just 59% during the month. 

And with US CPI coming in lower than expected overnight, the bulls could just be right. But that doesn't mean you should throw all caution to the wind. Inflation is still running at an incredibly hot 7.7% (in the US, at least). 

So has the bearishness of the market created some crowded trades? And should you be hiding within these stocks too? 

To find out, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by ClearLife Capital's David Moberley and QVG Capital's Josh Clark for their outlook on today's market. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday, November 9th 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-the-pros-are-still-cautious-and-whether-you-should-be-too 

Buy Hold Sell: 3 of the ASX’s most-shorted stocks (and 2 long-term compounders)

Total short selling on the ASX has been on the rise since the start of the new financial year, with short interest lifting 53% since then. 

That's according to ShortMan, which tracks the 100 most-shorted stocks on the ASX. As it stands today, there are 14 stocks with a short interest greater than 8%. This means that 8% or more of the shares on a company's register are currently being shorted. 

Hedge fund managers, or long/short funds, use shorting to target (and ultimately benefit) from a stock's falling share price. They rarely target stocks tracking on a steady upwards trend (as this can lead to a short squeeze, as we saw with GameStop). 

According to QVG Capital's Josh Clark, anything above 8% should be considered "big". Investors should keep this in mind because stocks with large short positions are often more volatile and sensitive to market news and announcements. This is true for both positive and negative news - as we have seen in recent weeks, with many of the ASX's most-shorted stocks surging off their lows amid the recent market rally.

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Clark and ClearLife Capital's David Moberley for their analysis of three heavily shorted stocks. 

Plus, for a spoonful of spice, they also name one stock with enviable compounding potential over the long term. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday, November 9th 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-3-of-the-asx-s-most-shorted-stocks-and-2-long-term-compounders