Buy Hold Sell, by Livewire Markets

Buy Hold Sell: 5 stocks for a Santa Rally

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas. Glittering trees adorn every office, the local bars and restaurants are palpable with cheer, and workers are prepping for a well-earned break after what has been a very unusual few years.

But can we expect a Santa Rally into the new year?

Well, according to the Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 has risen 73% of the time in December since 1928, delivering a 1.4% gain on average. Even the tech-heavy NASDAQ has risen 61% of the time during the month since 1971, recording an average return of 1.7%.

But what about the ASX? Here, Bell Direct's Grady Wulff was joined by Blackmore Capital's Marcus Bogdan and Firetrail Investments Blake Henricks for their analysis of five stocks poised for a possible Santa Rally into the new year.

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 23 November 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-stocks-for-a-santa-rally/ 

How to beat the inflation blues (and 2 stocks to do so)

If you've been noticing a little less cash in your wallet recently, it's very likely that inflation is to blame.  

For the 12 months until the end of September, the prices of fruit and vegetables rose more than 16%, while dairy products increased by around 12%. Fuel prices, which thankfully have dropped from their peak, are still up 18% for the year. Energy bills, however, are still on the rise, with gas and other household fuels lifting nearly 11% in the September quarter. Ouch! 

You've probably also noticed that inflation hasn't been kind to share markets. But some sectors (and stocks) are far better placed to play it. 

Here, Bell Direct's Grady Wulff was joined by Blackmore Capital's Marcus Bogdan and Firetrail Investments' Blake Henricks for their thoughts on whether inflation will remain sticky into the new year, as well as the top sectors and stocks to outperform if it remains anywhere above central banks' target levels of 2-3%. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 23 November 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/how-to-beat-the-inflation-blues-and-2-stocks-to-do-so 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 defensives to arm portfolios against future falls

Since hitting a low in September, the S&P/ASX 200 has rebounded a whopping 12.3%. And while markets are typically forward-looking, there are still plenty of headwinds that could see our bourse head south. 

So how can you protect your portfolio? Well, that's where defensives come in.

Defensive stocks typically belong to sectors where there is consistent demand for products or services throughout the economic cycle - such as supermarkets and food suppliers, utility providers, and the myriad of healthcare services. It also includes stocks with long-term track records of delivering consistent earnings in the face of the many challenges the market (and world) may throw at them.  

In this episode, Bell Direct's Grady Wulff makes her Buy Hold Sell debut alongside Firetrail Investment's Blake Henricks and Blackmore Capital's Marcus Bogdan for their analysis of three defensive darlings. 

Plus, they also name their top defensive pick to arm investors' portfolios against any future falls to come. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 23rd November 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-defensives-to-arm-portfolios-against-future-falls/ 

 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 stocks the pros have been buying

If there is one thing we can take away from what has been a very tumultuous 2022, it is that it's been a year of very few winners and many losers. 

Perhaps that's why so many investors are now turning to "expensive defensives", giving up valuation in the hope that these crowded trades will help bolster their portfolios against any future falls that may lay ahead. 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by ClearLife Capital's David Moberley and QVG Capital's Josh Clark for their analysis of five stocks professional investors have been hiding within in recent months. 

And spoiler alert, there's only one that David and Josh can agree upon. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday, November 9th 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-stocks-the-pros-have-been-buying 

Why the pros are still cautious (and whether you should be too)

A recent Bank of America survey found that professional investors are holding their highest levels of cash in 21 years, with the research house's Michael Hartnett declaring the latest survey of 371 global investors "screams macro capitulation, investor capitulation, [and the] start of policy capitulation." 

Despite the negative connotation of the above, this could actually be good news for markets. After all, BofA found that the share of investors who believe rates will lower over the next 12 months doubled to 28% in October, while those who see rates going higher dropped from an early 2022 peak of 92% to just 59% during the month. 

And with US CPI coming in lower than expected overnight, the bulls could just be right. But that doesn't mean you should throw all caution to the wind. Inflation is still running at an incredibly hot 7.7% (in the US, at least). 

So has the bearishness of the market created some crowded trades? And should you be hiding within these stocks too? 

To find out, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by ClearLife Capital's David Moberley and QVG Capital's Josh Clark for their outlook on today's market. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday, November 9th 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-the-pros-are-still-cautious-and-whether-you-should-be-too 

Buy Hold Sell: 3 of the ASX’s most-shorted stocks (and 2 long-term compounders)

Total short selling on the ASX has been on the rise since the start of the new financial year, with short interest lifting 53% since then. 

That's according to ShortMan, which tracks the 100 most-shorted stocks on the ASX. As it stands today, there are 14 stocks with a short interest greater than 8%. This means that 8% or more of the shares on a company's register are currently being shorted. 

Hedge fund managers, or long/short funds, use shorting to target (and ultimately benefit) from a stock's falling share price. They rarely target stocks tracking on a steady upwards trend (as this can lead to a short squeeze, as we saw with GameStop). 

According to QVG Capital's Josh Clark, anything above 8% should be considered "big". Investors should keep this in mind because stocks with large short positions are often more volatile and sensitive to market news and announcements. This is true for both positive and negative news - as we have seen in recent weeks, with many of the ASX's most-shorted stocks surging off their lows amid the recent market rally.

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Clark and ClearLife Capital's David Moberley for their analysis of three heavily shorted stocks. 

Plus, for a spoonful of spice, they also name one stock with enviable compounding potential over the long term. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday, November 9th 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-3-of-the-asx-s-most-shorted-stocks-and-2-long-term-compounders 

Buy Hold Sell: 3 dividend traps (and 2 you can trust)

Everyone loves a bargain. It's why Boxing Day sales are such a riot, or why my car salesman father tries to haggle nearly everything he buys. But as in life, sometimes a deal (or yield in this case) is too good to be true. 

Dividend traps occur when investors (like you, my dear reader), are lured in by a high dividend yield before realising the underlying company isn't all it is cracked up to be. Particularly now with inflation running so hot, it's easy to see why alluringly high yields would catch an investor's eye. 

However, if a company's share price continues to plummet, or it turns out the company can't pay the dividend it promised - that seductive dividend yield will turn into a trap.

In this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby is joined by Wheelhouse Partners' Alastair MacLeod and Plato Investment Management's Dr Don Hamson for their analysis of three stocks with sky-high yields that could just be dividend traps. 

And for a little bit of positivity, we also asked our fundies to each name one stock with a dividend yield you can actually trust. 

Now, that's what I call value for money. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 26th October 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-3-dividend-traps-and-2-you-can-trust 

3 stocks to fight the portfolio scaries (and the mistakes that have haunted fund managers in 2022)

Markets this year have been scary. For the first time in decades, the ghosts and ghouls of the investment world have resurrected to haunt global markets - inflation, rising rates, and a war led by a ruthless dictator. 

As a result, indices around the world have been painted in a blood red, with investors (and rightly so) catching a case of the portfolio scaries, moving towards defensives or worse, cashing in their holdings as stocks plummet. 

Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Plato Investment Management's Dr Don Hamson and Wheelhouse Partners' Alastair MacLeod for this Halloween special of Buy Hold Sell. 

In it, our fundies share the biggest portfolio changes they have made this year, the positions that have come back to haunt them, as well as some ghost-busting stocks that can help blow off those cobwebs in your portfolio over the months ahead. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 26th October 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/3-stocks-to-fight-the-portfolio-scaries-and-the-mistakes-that-have-haunted-fund-managers-in-2022 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 of the highest-yielding stocks on the ASX

On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics announced that inflation had surged 1.8% higher in the third quarter, taking the headline inflation rate for the past 12 months to an eye-watering 7.3%. For some context, this is the highest quarterly print since June 1990. 

So what does this mean for income investors? Particularly those who rely so heavily on yield? 

Well, capital appreciation aside, it means that higher inflation is eating into real yields. For example, if a stock has an annual yield of 6%, at this rate, you are still losing a significant percentage of your hard-earned cash. 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Plato Investment Management's Dr Don Hamson and Wheelhouse Partners' Alastair MacLeod for their analysis of five of the highest-yielding stocks on the ASX. 

And just in case you were wondering, all of these stocks have one-year forward yields, including franking, at or higher than Wednesday's print. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 26th October 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-of-the-highest-yielding-stocks-on-the-asx 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 resilient cash cows

Here at Livewire, we are fortunate enough to speak with the country's top investors every day. And if there is one recommendation these pros have consistently repeated in what has become a tumultuous year of rising interest rates, it's the importance of investing in stocks with tangible and growing profits. 

Unlike their long-duration counterparts, stocks earning a nice clip in the here and now have managed to be quite resilient in an otherwise volatile year. 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Medallion Financial's Michael Wayne and Hayborough Investment Partners' Ben Rundle for their analysis of three profitable ASX darlings.

Plus, they also bring along one small cap that they believe will continue to spew out cash (and remain resilient) over the year ahead.   

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 12th October 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-resilient-cash-cows