Buy Hold Sell, by Livewire Markets

Trump v Kamala: What a win for either party will mean for markets

We are only a week away from the US election - and it's arguably still anyone's guess who could win. 

Currently, betting markets have former US President Donald Trump at a 59% chance of winning a second term next week. That's despite Democrat nominee Kamala Harris leading in some of these same betting polls just one month ago. 

So, what would a Trump second term mean for markets? Or if Kamala pulls off the win, how should investors position their portfolios? 

In this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Magellan's Arvid Streimann and Antipodes' Jacob Mitchell for a deep dive into the US election and its impact on investors. 

They discuss the macro forces that could shift as a result of a new administration or the status quo, the sectors and stocks that could benefit and suffer as a result of a Democrat and a Republican administration, and cast their prediction of who will become the next president of the United States. 

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 23 October 2024. You can read an edited transcript below.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/trump-v-kamala-what-a-win-for-either-party-will-mean-for-markets  

Buy Hold Sell: 5 interest rate sensitive stocks for a new world of lower rates

With the US Federal Reserve cutting its cash rate by 50 basis points in September, Fitch Ratings predicts that the upper US federal funds target will fall to 4.5% by the end of the year, 3.5% by the end of 2025, and 3.0% by June 2026.  

Meanwhile, JP Morgan expects the Fed will cut by another 50 basis points in November. Looking out over the next few years, JP Morgan notes the Fed’s “dot plot” has four more 25 bp cuts (totalling 100 bp) in 2025. It also notes that the Fed has increased projections for its neutral funds rate by another eighth of a percentage point to 2.875% — which it expects to reach in 2026.

No one has a working crystal ball, but if expectations are anything to go by, interest rates (in the US at least) are on their way south. And while we may never see 0% cash rates again, lower cash rates are still positive for equities. 

So, in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Magellan's Arvid Streimann and Antipodes' Jacob Mitchell for their analysis of three interest-rate sensitive stocks that could benefit from this lower rate environment. 

Plus, they name two big buys that they are betting on today with this in mind. 

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 23 October 2024. You can read an edited transcript below. 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-interest-rate-sensitive-stocks-for-a-new-world-of-lower-rates/ 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 founder-led companies on the rise

Founder-led companies typically outperform their peers over the long term. Driven by a strong alignment of interest, a founder's long-term focus, and emotional dedication to a business's success, companies with founders at the helm are seen to be a safer bet than those with hired suits. 

Take Milford Asset Management, for example, which found the three-year performance of the founder-led stocks within their portfolio (23 companies) returned 24.9% per annum against the Small Ordinaries 2.7% to April 2024. 

Likewise, Solaris Investment Management found that over the last five years (from 2019 to 2024), the 12 largest founder-led companies on the ASX returned 420% while the benchmark accumulation index only returned 65%.

So, in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by two Hall of Fame fund managers in Ellerston's Chris Kourtis and Airlie's Matt Williams for their analysis of five founder-led companies. 

Are these bottom-drawer stocks, or should these founders get the boot? You'll find out in this episode of Buy Hold Sell. 

Note: This episode was recorded on Tuesday 8 October 2024. You can read the edited transcript below.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-founder-led-companies-on-the-rise 

Hall of Fame Special: How two of Australia's best invest

With decades of experience under their belts, it's fair to say that Ellerston's Chris Kourtis and Airlie's Matt Williams know a thing or two about investing. While their styles differ quite widely - Chris is a contrarian and Matt's all about quality and solid balance sheets - they both have their eyes keenly focused on their next opportunity. 

Interestingly, despite the different investment styles - valuation is one thing they can agree on - and make it clear that investors should take a fresh look at their portfolios and make sure they don't get caught out if we see a sell-off in the near future. 

Similarly, management is something that both our Hall of Fame fund managers are watching. However, while Matt is searching for businesses with teams that can execute well and help a stock soar, Chris is looking for missteps that could see the market punish a business far more than it should. 

So, in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby sits down with Chris and Matt for their insights into how they are thinking about markets and the macro forces at play, as well as a deep dive into their strategies and what makes them tick. 

Plus, they also share one piece of advice so that investors can be successful over the next 12 months, and a stock that can help investors on their way. 

I should say this episode is quite long, so sit back, relax and get comfy. But then again, how often do you get to hear straight from two Hall of Fund managers in one episode? 

Note: This episode was recorded on Tuesday 8 October 2024. You can read the edited transcript below.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/hall-of-fame-special-how-two-of-australia-s-best-invest

Buy Hold Sell: 2 Hall of Fame investors analyse each other's best ideas

Each year, a fund manager is added to the Hall of Fame. It's an illustrious list, including only the best of the best Australian funds management talent - the likes of Olev Rahn, Kerr Neilson, Peter Morgan, Anton Tagliaferro, Catherine Allfrey and more. 

Given another name will be added to the list later this month, we've called on the big guns - Hall of Fame alumni Chris Kourtis from Ellerston Capital and Matt Williams from Airlie Funds Management, who were inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2018 and 2022 respectively. 

With a unique opportunity to have two Hall of Famers in one room, Livewire decided that the best use of their talent would be to pick apart each other's highest-conviction stock picks. 

So, in this episode, Matt and Chris share their best ideas today - and joyfully point out the holes in each other's theses. 

Note: This episode was recorded on Tuesday the 8th of October 2024. You can read the edited transcript below. 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-2-hall-of-fame-investors-analyse-each-other-s-best-ideas 

Buy Hold Sell: Copper's time has finally come (and 2 big buys)

For years, experts have predicted a coming surge for copper. BHP, for instance, believes that copper demand will grow by around 70% to over 50 million tonnes (Mt) a year by 2050. For context, the total copper demand in 2023 was 31 million tonnes. 

But copper prices haven't really gone anywhere over the last three years - sitting at around the mid-US$4 level since November 2021. 

According to today's guests, slowing global economies has had a dampening effect on demand and kept copper prices suppressed at these levels. But looking out over the next five to 10 years, that demand will increase - meaning, it will be very hard for supply to keep up. The Fed's recent 50 bp rate cut is a catalyst - and supply shortages mean this theme won't last for 18 months or two years but for many years to come. 

So, in this episode, Money of Mine's Matt Michael was joined by Perennial's Sam Berridge and Argonaut's David Franklyn for their answers to the big copper conundrum. 

They analyse three copper stocks listed locally in Australia - including Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR), Metals Acquisition (ASX: MAC) and Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN). 

Plus, they both name two big BUYS in the copper space that they are bullish on today. 

Note: This episode was recorded on Thursday 19 September 2024. You can read an edited transcript below.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-copper-s-time-has-finally-come-and-2-big-buys 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 uranium stocks as prices bottom out

Uranium prices have cascaded 23% since hitting a high early in the year, now trading at around US$81/lb. However, Argonaut's David Franklyn believes this is a "pretty good long-term price" - arguing that while demand growth will be substantial, supply will eventually kick in. 

Despite that, some of the ASX's uranium darlings have still had a pretty impressive 12 months, with Paladin Energy and Deep Yellow, for instance, up 16% and 27% respectively year to date. That said, other plays, like Boss Energy, have not had a good year - with its share price plummeting 22% in 2024. 

So, where are fundies seeing value and which uranium stocks should investors be avoiding? 

To find out, Money of Mine host Matt Michael was joined by Franklyn and Perennial's Sam Berridge for their analysis of their uranium market, where they believe prices could be headed, as well as some key learnings following the World Nuclear Association symposium.

Plus, they also provide their views on a couple of uranium stocks and name two they would label "buys" today. 

Note: This episode was recorded on Thursday 19 September 2024. You can read an edited transcript below.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-uranium-stocks-as-prices-bottom-out 

Buy Hold Sell: Gold soars to new highs - but fundies are selling these 2 stocks

Gold prices are trading at all-time highs, with the yellow metal soaring more than 38% over the last 12 months alone. The "safe haven" commodity's price has been driven by continued economic uncertainty, rising geopolitical tensions, a weakening US dollar, and net purchases of gold by global central banks - particularly emerging market central banks in Asia. 

But can gold prices continue even higher from here? And if so, which ASX-listed players are likely to benefit? 

To find out, Livewire has handed over the reins to our friends in Perth, Money of Mine, for their specialist knowledge of the resources sector. 

Host Matt Michael sits down with two Perth-based fund managers with their ears to the ground on all things resources stocks - Perennial's Sam Berridge and Argonaut's David Franklyn. 

In this episode, they analyse the lay of the land when it comes to gold, their preferred exposures in terms of established players versus juniors for greater gold price leverage, and share the stocks they would be selling despite the stellar run in prices. 

Note: This episode was recorded on Thursday 19 September 2024. You can read an edited transcript below. 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-gold-soars-to-new-highs-but-fundies-are-selling-these-2-stocks/

Buy Hold Sell: 5 stocks boosting their dividends over the next 2 years

Investors love a dividend. Not only do they help provide investors with passive income during even the rockiest periods in markets, but they also make up a significant portion of Australian investors' total return over the long term. 

While the current outlook for dividends for the Aussie market may not be super hot, some stocks are boosting their dividend payouts over the next 24 months. 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Ausbil Investment Management's Michael Price and Martin Currie's Reece Birtles for their analysis of three stocks with strong dividend per share growth expectations in both 2025 and 2026. 

Plus, they each share a stock they are buying today given its strong dividend growth expectations in the future. 

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 11 September 2024. You can read an edited transcript below.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-stocks-boosting-their-dividends-over-the-next-2-years/ 

Buy Hold Sell: How to maximise your income on the ASX

Let’s face it: We’re all capable of being mesmerised by headlines.

Whether it's a cracking headline on Livewire or an attractive headline price at the shops ($199 is always more appealing than $200), we’re often reluctant to read the fine print or understand what’s going on beneath the surface.

But that reluctance can get you into trouble, particularly when it comes to income investing.

There is a point at which a headline yield starts to look more like a pitfall than a probability and there are ways to construct portfolios that maximise the income opportunity.

If you’re wondering what that point is, then wonder no more. On today’s episode of Buy Hold Sell, Michael Price from Ausbil and Reece Birtles from Martin Currie share with Livewire's Ally Selby the number at which a dividend yield becomes a red flag.

They also share the factors they look for when hunting for great income stocks and, of course, a couple of opportunities they particularly like right now. 

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 11 September 2024.