Buy Hold Sell, by Livewire Markets

Buy Hold Sell: 3 stocks that smashed expectations (and 2 disappointments)

Investors across the country can be heard breathing a simultaneous sigh of relief as the all-important August reporting season comes to a close. 

We made it, and it wasn't at all as bad as many predicted. And while, sure, there could be some serious storm clouds gathering on the horizon for earnings over the next six to 12 months, some companies have now proved they have the balance sheets (and the chutzpah) to survive and even thrive in the foreseeable future. 

In this reporting season special of Buy Hold Sell, Centennial Asset Management's Matthew Kidman is joined by two powerhouse Aussie equities guests - abrdn's Michelle Lopez and First Sentier's David Wilson for their analysis of three stocks that smashed broker expectations (with the selection of these stocks thanks to Rudi Filapek-Vandyck of FN Arena). 

And because we know you all love a little dash of drama, our guests also name two stocks that seriously disappointed this reporting season too. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was filmed on Wednesday, 30th August 2022. You can read an edited transcript below: 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-3-stocks-that-smashed-expectations-and-2-disappointments/

Buy Hold Sell: 5 of the most-shorted stocks on the ASX

In a market of headwinds aplenty, where nothing really seems to be working, one momentum trade continues to gain traction... Buying the ASX's most shorted stocks. 

In fact, since hitting lows in June, companies like Betmakers, Nanosonics, Block, Zip Co, and Lake Resources have skyrocketed higher, lifting a respective 33%, 47%, 30%, 132% and 101%. 

So what does this mean for investors like you? Well, my friend, cast your mind back to the now infamous short squeeze of January 2021 - GameStop. 

Back then, hedge funds were forced to cut their losses and buy back shares to cover their short positions, as retail investors continued to bid GameStop's share price higher. This drove the momentum in the company's share price, forcing it higher still. Its a classic supply-demand equation, but in this case, not enough supply of those selling the stock, and too much demand from buyers.  

So could there be some short squeeze candidates hiding among Australia's most-shorted stocks? Unfortunately, for us investors, this is a very difficult (and potentially dangerous) game to play. 

So why not take a longer-term view? In this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Ben Clark from TMS Capital and Henry Jennings from Marcus Today for their views on the five most-shorted stocks on the ASX. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was filmed on Wednesday 17th August 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-of-the-most-shorted-stocks-on-the-asx/ 

6 stocks for a full portfolio reset (and 2 duds to avoid)

I don't know about you, but this anonymous writer has not had a good night's sleep in what seems like months. It's probably because this intense market volatility has been keeping investors up at night. Well, it's that or it could be that a dog is now taking over my bed. The jury is out on that one...

 

At some stages, many of us have suffered from some serious portfolio blues, confounded by a persistent sea of red. Meanwhile, the professionals have similarly had a rough time of it. As the benefits of the post-Global Financial Crisis bull market fade, many have posted negative returns for the first time in more than a decade.  

So if you could, would you start from scratch? 

If the answer to that question is yes - you're in luck. In this thematic episode of Buy Hold Sell, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by TMS Capital's Ben Clark and Marcus Today's Henry Jennings for a full portfolio reset. 

They share whether they would turn a fresh page if given the chance, the top three stocks they would want in each of these hypothetical portfolios, as well as the duds that are currently giving them grief that would be on their way out. 

Plus, they share the macro headwinds that are still creasing their brows, as well as the sectors (and stocks) that they believe are still providing investors with compelling opportunities today. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was filmed on Wednesday 17th August 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/6-stocks-for-a-full-portfolio-reset-and-2-duds-to-avoid/ 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 stocks to soar as recession risk rolls over

While the US is technically in a recession, with two negative quarters of GDP growth in the first half of 2022, several leading economists would say otherwise. 

Look no further than Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius, who recently pointed to solid second-quarter earnings as proof of recession risk rolling over. Or JP Morgan's global head of macro quantitative and derivatives research, Marko Kolanovic, who remains pro-risk, steadfast that the probability of a recession is low. 

Then, of course, there's former Deutsche Bank chief economist Ed Yardeni (now of Yardeni Research), who recently noted that the technical indicators are pointing in the direction of the bulls. 

But that's all very US-focused. How does this fading risk impact Aussie stocks? Glad you asked. 

In this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Ben Clark from TMS Capital and Henry Jennings from Marcus Today for their analysis of three stocks that have been hit hard by recession fears. 

Plus, they each name their number one pick that could soar if the risk of recession is truly behind us. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was filmed on Wednesday 17th August 2022. You can read an edited transcript below: 

 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-stocks-to-soar-as-recession-risk-rolls-over/ 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 stocks battling for blue chip status

The term "blue chip" was first coined in 1923, when an employee at Dow Jones observed several stocks trading at US$200 or more a share. As any good poker player knows, blue chips are more valuable than their red and white counterparts. 

 

Just like in poker, these "blue chip" stocks are also highly valuable - and while the term no longer applies to expensive stocks, it has become synonymous with high-quality dividend payers that have made a name for themselves over the ages.

Really, the ASX 20 is an exclusive, members-only club, reserved for some of Australia's most valuable businesses. Think CSL, BHP, Macquarie - these stocks are market leaders, household names, and often global success stories worthy of adoration. 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by IML's Hugh Giddy and Atlas Funds Management's Hugh Dive for their analysis of five stocks battling for blue chip status. 

And spoiler alert: These fundies can't agree on anything in this episode - except that one of these stocks is a screaming sell. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday, July 20th 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-stocks-battling-for-blue-chip-status-2022-07-28/

Two stocks making their way into the ASX 20 (and one on its way out)

We investors are constantly searching for the next CSL. After all, if you invested in this growth darling a decade ago, your cash would have increased by almost 616%. If you had invested two decades ago, that figure would skyrocket to 3097%. 

But not all stocks that climb their way up into the ASX 20 stay there. In the past year, we've seen the Afterpay/Block acquisition and Brambles drop from the list. And then, of course, there are names like Pasminco, ERG Group, Centro Properties and Babcock & Brown, which over the past few decades, have stung investors on their way down. 

So are we spending too much time trying to uncover the next CSL and not enough time thinking about whether there's a Babcock & Brown or a Pasminco lurking in our portfolios? 

In this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Atlas Funds Management's Hugh Dive and IML's Hugh Giddy for their analysis of the current market environment, where they think is safe, as well as one stock making its way up into the top 20 - and one on its way out. 

Note: This video was filmed on Wednesday 20th July, 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/two-stocks-making-their-way-into-the-asx-20-and-one-on-its-way-out/ 

Buy Hold Sell: 3 dogs of the ASX 100 (and 2 in for a rebound)

In 1991, Florida-based portfolio manager Michael B. O'Higgins released his book "Beating the Dow". In it, he proposed a strategy whereby with as little as $5000, investors could beat the pros 95% of the time by investing in the 10 high-yield blue-chip "dogs" of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). 

Inspired by O'Higgins' work, Atlas Funds Management's Hugh Dive runs his very own version of this strategy, building a portfolio of the 10 worst-performing ASX-listed large caps at the start of the new financial year and tracking their progress. 

The strike rate, surprisingly, is quite good - with the 10 "dogs" beating the benchmark in seven out of the last 10 years. 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Dive and IML's Hugh Giddy for their analysis of three of the worst-performing blue-chip stocks over the past 12 months. 

Plus, they each name one beaten-down stock that they believe is the best contender for a rebound over the year ahead. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 20th July 2022. You can read an edited transcript below: 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-3-dogs-of-the-asx-100-and-2-in-for-a-rebound/ 

Buy Hold Sell: The best and worst-performing ETFs of the year

They say active management comes to the fore when markets are a mess. Unsurprisingly then, several active managers have recently forwarned investors to steer clear from "beta" products - like index-tracking ETFs, over the months ahead.

While only time will tell if a passive or active approach outperforms in this tumultuous market, it may surprise investors to learn that more than 16% of the ETFs the ASX tracks delivered positive returns for investors in FY23, while 41% returned more than the S&P/ASX 200.*

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Shaw & Partners Felicity Thomas and Apt Wealth's Sarah Gonzales for a look at the best and worst performing ETFs over the past year.

Note: This video was shot on Wednesday 6 July 2022. You can read the transcript below. *From the ASX's monthly Fund Statistics.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-the-best-and-worst-performing-etfs-of-the-year/ 

How to navigate this market volatility with ETFs

They say market meltdowns make an investor (a lot of money if they're wise, that is). That said, trying to pick the winners when the rest of the market is running for the hills isn't exactly easy.

After all, the S&P/ASX 200 has dropped more than 12% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P/ASX 200 VIX Index - the gauge of expected volatility for the Aussie stock market - has lifted nearly 60%.

It hasn't been easy for the country's top stockpickers either. From what we can see from ASX Fund data, more than 40% of Australian equity managers underperformed the benchmark over the 12 months to the end of May. Meanwhile, SPIVA data shows that 73.45% of active managers underperform the S&P/ASX 200 over a five-year period.

It therefore begs the question, is a passive approach a safer bet?

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Shaw & Partners' Felicity Thomas and Apt Wealth's Sarah Gonzales for their thoughts on using active or passive products to navigate market volatility.

Plus, they also share the number one question they are hearing from clients right now, as well as one ETF that they are recommending to clients to help sail through these stormy markets.

Note: This video was shot on Wednesday 6 July 2022. You can read the transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/how-to-navigate-this-market-volatility-with-etfs/ 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 bargain ETFs to refresh portfolios in FY23

They say the end of the financial year is the best time to snap up a bargain, and just like your favourite retailer, the market happens to be offering quite a few deals right now. 

Since the beginning of the year, the S&P/ASX 200 has fallen more than 12%, while the S&P 500 has cascaded nearly 20% into the red. Property - both commercial and residential - also is feeling the heat as interest rates continue to rise. 

Given the challenge of identifying the companies that can succeed in this challenging market environment (or any market, for that matter) exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, have emerged as a popular bet among investors.

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Shaw & Partners' Felicity Thomas and Apt Wealth's Sarah Gonzales, who shared their thoughts on three low-cost ETFs to give your portfolios a much-needed facelift in FY23. 

Plus, they name one defensive ETF that could help bolster portfolios over the months to come. 

Note: This video was shot on Wednesday 6 July 2022. You can read the transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-bargain-etfs-to-refresh-your-portfolio-in-fy23/