Buy Hold Sell, by Livewire Markets

2 contrarian predictions (and the stocks to play them)

The first half of 2022 has been marked by a surge in safe-haven buying (namely, bonds and the US Dollar Index) at the expense of growth stocks. If you need any proof of how far that part of the market has fallen, just consider that EML Payments (ASX: EML) is down more than 50% this year, while Zip (ASX: ZIP) is down more than 77%... So far.

It doesn't help that the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate for the first time in 10 years earlier this month - and has flagged more hikes will be needed if it wants to bring inflation back into its target band. The Federal Reserve is also facing the same quandary - and all in all, that's making investors nervous. 

So is now the time to dip your toe in and buy quality stocks at bargain prices? Or could there be more pain at the trading desk if you decide instead to follow the crowd to cyclicals? 

We examine those themes and more in this thematic episode of Buy Hold Sell. Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by TMS Capital's Ben Clark and Tribeca Investment Partners' Jun Bei Liu to discuss two contrarian calls for the remainder of 2022 and the stocks they are buying to play them. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 11th May 2022. You can read an edited transcript below: 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/2-contrarian-predictions-and-the-stocks-to-play-them/ 

Buy Hold Sell: 6 bullish calls to beat the portfolio blues

We probably should have all seen it coming. Markets around the globe have taken a dive as central banks reel in the "free money" that we have enjoyed over the past few years and start to raise rates in a bid to curb the kryptonite of markets - inflation. 

As it stands today, the S&P/ASX 200 has fallen more than 8.4% in 2022, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ has plunged a whopping 27.5%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has dropped nearly 18% year to date, the Shanghai Composite is down 15.7%, while the FTSE 100, in comparison, looks slightly better, down more than 2%. 

If you're like most, your portfolios have probably also seen their fair share of red since the beginning of the year. And while they say that "bad news sells", it's always worth finding the good in every situation. 

So in this episode of Buy Hold Sell, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by TMS Capital's Ben Clark and Tribeca Investment Partners' Jun Bei Liu for a look at their highest conviction positions right now. 

We hope these six bullish calls can help beat your portfolio blues. 

Editors note: Hey Ally, you said six and there are only five stocks? In the midst of all the fun of this shoot, we completely forgot to record Jun Bei's last stock. Sorry about that folks. Luckily, Jun Bei and Ben have shared their analysis of the sixth stock, which you can see by clicking the link below. Once again, apologies folks. 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-6-bullish-calls-to-beat-the-portfolio-blues/ 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 11th May 2022. You can read an edited transcript by clicking the link above.

 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 daringly disruptive stocks

The theory of "disruptive innovation" was introduced in the well-thumbed pages of the Harvard Business Journal in 1995 by Joseph Bower and the late Clayton Christensen.

In it, they outlined the case for classic disruption - a small enterprise targeting an overlooked proportion of the population with a new but modest offering, and gradually growing to challenge industry incumbents. 

In this theory, disruption only occurs in two cases: in low-end, less profitable markets, or in completely new markets altogether. However, over the past 27 years, "disruption" has shape-shifted to become a tell-all term for a business with a heck of a lot of growth potential, usually followed in tow by a slew of imitator start-ups, and of course, industry incumbents quickly pivoting their business models to catch up. 

And what could be more disruptive than decarbonisation? 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Nanuk Asset Management's Peter Wilmshurst and Pella Funds Management's Steven Glass for their thoughts on three companies that dare to disrupt incumbent industries as the world shifts to net zero. 

Plus, they also each name two companies that could become global leaders in one of the world's most important megatrends over the coming three decades. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 27th April 2022. You can read an edited transcript below: 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-daringly-disruptive-stocks/ 

 

Buy Hold Sell: China v US

I

t's the geopolitical theme of the century - the fistfight between the world's greatest superpowers, China and the US. 

I think we can all agree that the US won the first round. But now, with rising rates, political friction, and the very real possibility of recession the future remains rather uncertain. 

But that's not to say China's a sure bet. After all, it's led by a communist government that is increasingly cracking down on some of the country's biggest monopolies. And while the modernisation and urbanisation of its economy may have spurred global growth over the past few decades, there are clear signs that this is now slowing down. 

So Livewire's James Marlay was joined by Antipodes' Jacob Mitchell and Platinum's Andrew Clifford for a unique new format of Buy Hold Sell. In this episode, we asked our guests to choose between six different Chinese and American giants, but they could only buy three. 

And for the investors with a penchant for global value, we asked Jacob and Andrew to name one company that they believe is a leader in its industry in for some nice returns in the future. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 27th April 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-china-v-us 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 emerging leaders for your watchlist

When you ask, we listen (and intently so). In December, we surveyed more than 4000 Livewire readers, and you told us there was one theme that deserved our attention - decarbonisation. And we're certainly not one to dispute the crowd. 

It makes cents (literally). Serious money is flowing into renewable energy around the globe. In fact, Calastone found that ESG funds were the major beneficiaries of Australians' savings in 2021, with net new capital invested in ESG equity funds more than quadrupling year-on-year to $3 billion. 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by two sustainable investment experts - Stephane Andre from Alphinity and Mike Murray from Australian Ethical - for their analysis of three ASX-listed stocks for exposure to decarbonisation.

Plus, we also asked our guests to each name one company that they think could become a decarbonisation leader over the years to come. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 27th April 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-cracking-asx-listed-stocks-for-exposure-to-decarbonisation 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 undervalued global growth stocks

Growth and the word "undervalued" don't usually appear in the same sentence. After all, much-loved growth stock Tesla still trades on a P/E of 136.37 times, while the trailing P/E of the NASDAQ 100 is currently more than 31 times. 

But with an estimated forward P/E of 24.75 times, and some stocks cascading 50-70% off their highs in the recent sell-off, growth stocks may just be the perfect hunting ground for value investors. 

So in this episode, Livewire's James Marlay was joined by two of the country's most respected global stockpickers - Jacob Mitchell from Antipodes and Andrew Clifford from Platinum, for their thoughts on three long-term compounders trading at stomachable valuations. 

Plus, they also each name one stock with double-digit growth potential that is still trading at a compelling price. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 27th April 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-undervalued-global-growth-stocks/ 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 megatrends and the ETFs to play them

 

In a world of inflation and rising rates, it can be easy to focus on the short-term benefits that cyclical companies may enjoy. But megatrends, those powerful, transformative forces that change and disrupt the way our societies and economies operate, are a fantastic way for investors to get exposure to long-term growth. 

 

One such megatrend is decarbonisation, an area of the market that 62% of Livewire readers told us they would be allocating their capital to in 2022. Other megatrends that are rapidly transforming our society include the aging population, the rise of Web 3.0, and the ever-accelerating move towards digitisation and automation.

 

Given the challenge of identifying those companies that will ultimately succeed, thematic ETFs have rapidly emerged as a popular way for investors to access these long-term opportunities.

 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by two talented financial advisers - Felicity Thomas from Shaw and Partners and Ben Nash from Pivot Wealth - for their thoughts on five exciting themes for the next decade (and the ETFs that investors can use to play them). 

 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 13th April 2022. You can read an edited transcript below: 

 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-megatrends-and-the-etfs-to-play-them/

How to build a (multi) million dollar portfolio with ETFs

While it has become somewhat of a meme and investing trope that the first million is the hardest to make, there's no doubt that it is true.

In fact, the advisers featured in this episode say it can take 35 years, but you have to invest $740 a month, every month, at a 6% annual compound rate. For those with a little less spare cash (or just starting out on their investing journey), a $53 investment every week into an ASX index fund could turn into just over a million dollars in 40 years.

But that's not to say Australia isn't flush with millionaires already. According to research from Praemium, there were over 635,000 millionaires in Australia in 2021, climbing from 488,000 the year prior. Meanwhile, the Australian's annual Rich List found there are 131 billionaires in our country.

So in this thematic episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Shaw and Partners' Felicity Thomas and Pivot Wealth's Ben Nash for their thoughts on building (multi) million-dollar portfolios with ETFs.

Plus, they also share the biggest mistake they are seeing in client portfolios right now.

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 13th April 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/how-to-build-a-multi-million-dollar-portfolio-with-etfs/ 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 ETFs to help you sleep at night

While sleep - or lack thereof - was already a major talking point in Australia prior to the advent of COVID-19 (I mean, the government funded a national sleep health inquiry in 2018), things haven't exactly gotten better since. 

In fact, research out of Medibank found that almost 1-in-4 Australians (or nearly 5 million people) said their sleep had been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. 

Meanwhile, a 2021 report from Deloitte Access Economics found that poor sleep sets Australians back around $14.4 billion each year in financial costs, while knackered employees racked up productivity losses of $11 billion. 

So in this episode of Buy Hold Sell, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by two talented financial advisers - Felicity Thomas from Shaw and Partners and Ben Nash from Pivot Wealth - for their thoughts on three of the best set and forget ETFs so investors can rest easy at night. 

Plus, we also asked our financial advisers to each name one ETF that they believe every single investor should have in their portfolios right now. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 13th April 2022. You can read an edited transcript below. 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-etfs-to-help-you-sleep-at-night/

Buy Hold Sell: 4 top stocks (and 2 that have lost their shine)

It's the finance industry's worst-kept secret. Over the long term, the majority of active managers underperform their benchmarks. In fact, SPIVA data shows that over a 10 year period, 79.82% of funds underperformed the S&P/ASX 200.

Many believe this underperformance is thanks to the proliferation of index-like funds. While others believe it is because managers are forced to invest in more stocks as funds under management grows. Then, of course, there's the matter of fees detracting from performance.

But according to a study by US-based portfolio manager and author Robert Hagstrom, a high conviction portfolio of investors' best ideas can increase one's chances of outperformance.

In fact, he found that a randomly generated portfolio of 15 stocks would generate a maximum return of 26.6% annually over a period of 10 years. For 50 stocks, this was 19.2%. Meanwhile, among the portfolios with 250 stocks, the best return possible was 16% per annum.

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Perpetual's James Rutledge and WaveStone Capital's Raaz Bhuyan - two high conviction fund managers - for their analysis of each of their two top holdings.

Plus, we also asked our fundies to analyse two market darlings that could be in for some troubled times over the months ahead.

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 30 March 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-4-top-stocks-and-2-that-have-lost-their-shine/