Buy Hold Sell, by Livewire Markets

Buy Hold Sell: The 3 best and 2 worst performing ASX100 stocks in FY22

When threats are lurking, with size comes safety. Just look at birds: the larger the flock, the less prone they are to predators. The same applies to investing - when markets are a bit bumpy, the small end of town tends to be much more volatile than its counterparts in the large. 

As we approach the end of the financial year, it has been a wild ride for equities. The ASX100 has been somewhat stable though, considering the uncertain macroeconomic environment, down only 2.35% year-to-date. This is very favourable versus the ASX200 (-7.51%) and S&P500 (-14.19%). So if you are looking for protection as well as opportunity, maybe the largest of the large is the place to be.

In this episode, we hosted Anthony Aboud from Perpetual and Sean Fenton from Sage Capital to uncover their thoughts on the darlings and the dogs of the ASX100 from FY22. Follow along as we look at 3 of the best performing ASX100 shares and 2 laggards from the past year.

The top-performing ASX100 stocks covered:

• Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS)
• Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC)
• Incitec Pivot (ASX:IPL)

The worst-performing ASX100 stocks covered:

• Dominos’s Pizza (ASX:DMP)
• REA Group (ASX:REA)

Buy Hold Sell: 5 Aussie small caps to weather the storm

Bittersweet. Civil war. Virtual reality. And the famous Mark Twain quote “It usually takes more than three weeks to prepare a good impromptu speech.” What do all these have in common? Why, they’re oxymorons of course!

That brings us to the topic of today’s episode of Buy Hold Sell: Resilient small caps. While these ideas are not complete opposites, the small end of town is certainly where you’ll be more susceptible to stock price capitulation, particularly as the market starts to crunch.

And boy, it is crunching alright. The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries is down nearly 17% year to date, while its big brother the ASX200 has printed a more modest -5.5%. Some former small-cap darlings have led the descent, the following among those caught in the selloff:

• Buy now pay later company Z1P (ASX: Z1P) fell -78.75% 
• Digital payments firm Tyro (ASX: TYR) down -62.94%
• Online sports betting company Pointsbet Holdings (ASX: PBH) dipped by -62.84% 
• Data centre business Megaport (ASX: MP1) declined -59.54% 

If you're in need of capital protection but can't let go of your Growth infatuation just yet, this episode is for you. We hosted small-cap specialists Josh Clark from QVG Capital and Gary Rollo from Montgomery Investment Management, quizzing them on the small caps they believe offer exciting upside after the sell-off while remaining resilient through market cycles. 

The stocks covered are:

• Travel company Webjet (ASX: WEB),
• Billing software firm Hansen Technologies (ASX: HSN), and 
• Data and software company Objective Corporation (ASX: OCL). 

The small-cap sectors to avoid (and where to invest)

When volatility is up and risk appetites are down, small caps invariably take a hit. Investors will naturally gravitate towards more liquid areas of the market. 

But the sell-off has been about more than just risk-off sentiment. Fundamentals have changed. Consumer-facing stocks are feeling the pinch while rising rates are set to hurt long-duration names with a lot of debt on the books. 

You can still remain invested in the market, though, so long as you replace any sells with high conviction buys. 

"It's ok to be active, but don't forget to buy something on the other side," says Josh Clark from QVG Capital. 

In this edition of Buy Hold Sell, Josh is joined by Gary Rollo from Montgomery Investment Management to offer up some tips that will help you "aim small, miss small." 

They'll also discuss the tech growth names that have 35% upside. 

Read or watch below. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 25th May 2022. You can watch the video, read an edited transcript or listen to the podcast below. All data provided by Mathan Somasundaram (DeepData Analytics)

Buy Hold Sell: 5 discounted growth stocks

Growth stocks have been punished, especially at the smaller and less liquid end of the market. Think of sectors like healthcare, discretionary retail and tech (Covid winners anyone?). 

But what does that look like in terms of numbers? Glad you asked, as our friends at Deep Data Analytics have recently crunched the numbers and it isn’t pretty.

The worst 10 performers in the small cap healthcare sector are down ~32% on average, in discretionary retail the fall is ~49% and things get ugly in tech where the worst 10 are down ~54% on average.

No doubt many Livewire readers will have had some high-growth names on the wishlist, but couldn’t stomach the valuations. So, we invited small cap specialists Josh Clark from QVG Capital and Gary Rollo from Montgomery Investment Management to see if a selection of market darlings are cheap enough to get them interested.

The stocks covered are IDP Education, Pro Medicus and City Chic Collective. Our guests also share a growth stock that they think has been oversold and now looks attractive.

Buy Hold Sell: 5 stocks that surprisingly benefit from rising rates

It's clear that rising rates haven't been great for local and global share markets. High P/E names, those that have led the world's major bourses over the past few years, have run and tripped off a cliff, and look to be heading for an awkward and uncomfortable belly flop in the dark waters below.

Either way, the next few months are likely to be painful for investors. But they don't have to be. In fact, there are some stocks, other than banks and commodities companies, that can surprisingly benefit from the rising rate cycle. 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Tribeca Investment Management's Jun Bei Liu and TMS Capital's Ben Clark for a look at three stocks that profit from rising rates and inflation. 

Plus, they also both name one company with surprising upside ahead as the RBA continues on its aggressive rate hike cycle. 

 Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 11th May 2022. You can read an edited transcript below: 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-stocks-that-surprisingly-benefit-from-rising-rates/ 

 

2 contrarian predictions (and the stocks to play them)

The first half of 2022 has been marked by a surge in safe-haven buying (namely, bonds and the US Dollar Index) at the expense of growth stocks. If you need any proof of how far that part of the market has fallen, just consider that EML Payments (ASX: EML) is down more than 50% this year, while Zip (ASX: ZIP) is down more than 77%... So far.

It doesn't help that the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate for the first time in 10 years earlier this month - and has flagged more hikes will be needed if it wants to bring inflation back into its target band. The Federal Reserve is also facing the same quandary - and all in all, that's making investors nervous. 

So is now the time to dip your toe in and buy quality stocks at bargain prices? Or could there be more pain at the trading desk if you decide instead to follow the crowd to cyclicals? 

We examine those themes and more in this thematic episode of Buy Hold Sell. Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by TMS Capital's Ben Clark and Tribeca Investment Partners' Jun Bei Liu to discuss two contrarian calls for the remainder of 2022 and the stocks they are buying to play them. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 11th May 2022. You can read an edited transcript below: 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/2-contrarian-predictions-and-the-stocks-to-play-them/ 

Buy Hold Sell: 6 bullish calls to beat the portfolio blues

We probably should have all seen it coming. Markets around the globe have taken a dive as central banks reel in the "free money" that we have enjoyed over the past few years and start to raise rates in a bid to curb the kryptonite of markets - inflation. 

As it stands today, the S&P/ASX 200 has fallen more than 8.4% in 2022, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ has plunged a whopping 27.5%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has dropped nearly 18% year to date, the Shanghai Composite is down 15.7%, while the FTSE 100, in comparison, looks slightly better, down more than 2%. 

If you're like most, your portfolios have probably also seen their fair share of red since the beginning of the year. And while they say that "bad news sells", it's always worth finding the good in every situation. 

So in this episode of Buy Hold Sell, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by TMS Capital's Ben Clark and Tribeca Investment Partners' Jun Bei Liu for a look at their highest conviction positions right now. 

We hope these six bullish calls can help beat your portfolio blues. 

Editors note: Hey Ally, you said six and there are only five stocks? In the midst of all the fun of this shoot, we completely forgot to record Jun Bei's last stock. Sorry about that folks. Luckily, Jun Bei and Ben have shared their analysis of the sixth stock, which you can see by clicking the link below. Once again, apologies folks. 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-6-bullish-calls-to-beat-the-portfolio-blues/ 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 11th May 2022. You can read an edited transcript by clicking the link above.

 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 daringly disruptive stocks

The theory of "disruptive innovation" was introduced in the well-thumbed pages of the Harvard Business Journal in 1995 by Joseph Bower and the late Clayton Christensen.

In it, they outlined the case for classic disruption - a small enterprise targeting an overlooked proportion of the population with a new but modest offering, and gradually growing to challenge industry incumbents. 

In this theory, disruption only occurs in two cases: in low-end, less profitable markets, or in completely new markets altogether. However, over the past 27 years, "disruption" has shape-shifted to become a tell-all term for a business with a heck of a lot of growth potential, usually followed in tow by a slew of imitator start-ups, and of course, industry incumbents quickly pivoting their business models to catch up. 

And what could be more disruptive than decarbonisation? 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Nanuk Asset Management's Peter Wilmshurst and Pella Funds Management's Steven Glass for their thoughts on three companies that dare to disrupt incumbent industries as the world shifts to net zero. 

Plus, they also each name two companies that could become global leaders in one of the world's most important megatrends over the coming three decades. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 27th April 2022. You can read an edited transcript below: 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-daringly-disruptive-stocks/ 

 

Buy Hold Sell: China v US

I

t's the geopolitical theme of the century - the fistfight between the world's greatest superpowers, China and the US. 

I think we can all agree that the US won the first round. But now, with rising rates, political friction, and the very real possibility of recession the future remains rather uncertain. 

But that's not to say China's a sure bet. After all, it's led by a communist government that is increasingly cracking down on some of the country's biggest monopolies. And while the modernisation and urbanisation of its economy may have spurred global growth over the past few decades, there are clear signs that this is now slowing down. 

So Livewire's James Marlay was joined by Antipodes' Jacob Mitchell and Platinum's Andrew Clifford for a unique new format of Buy Hold Sell. In this episode, we asked our guests to choose between six different Chinese and American giants, but they could only buy three. 

And for the investors with a penchant for global value, we asked Jacob and Andrew to name one company that they believe is a leader in its industry in for some nice returns in the future. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 27th April 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-china-v-us 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 emerging leaders for your watchlist

When you ask, we listen (and intently so). In December, we surveyed more than 4000 Livewire readers, and you told us there was one theme that deserved our attention - decarbonisation. And we're certainly not one to dispute the crowd. 

It makes cents (literally). Serious money is flowing into renewable energy around the globe. In fact, Calastone found that ESG funds were the major beneficiaries of Australians' savings in 2021, with net new capital invested in ESG equity funds more than quadrupling year-on-year to $3 billion. 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by two sustainable investment experts - Stephane Andre from Alphinity and Mike Murray from Australian Ethical - for their analysis of three ASX-listed stocks for exposure to decarbonisation.

Plus, we also asked our guests to each name one company that they think could become a decarbonisation leader over the years to come. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 27th April 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-cracking-asx-listed-stocks-for-exposure-to-decarbonisation