Buy Hold Sell, by Livewire Markets

Why the pros are still cautious (and whether you should be too)

A recent Bank of America survey found that professional investors are holding their highest levels of cash in 21 years, with the research house's Michael Hartnett declaring the latest survey of 371 global investors "screams macro capitulation, investor capitulation, [and the] start of policy capitulation." 

Despite the negative connotation of the above, this could actually be good news for markets. After all, BofA found that the share of investors who believe rates will lower over the next 12 months doubled to 28% in October, while those who see rates going higher dropped from an early 2022 peak of 92% to just 59% during the month. 

And with US CPI coming in lower than expected overnight, the bulls could just be right. But that doesn't mean you should throw all caution to the wind. Inflation is still running at an incredibly hot 7.7% (in the US, at least). 

So has the bearishness of the market created some crowded trades? And should you be hiding within these stocks too? 

To find out, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by ClearLife Capital's David Moberley and QVG Capital's Josh Clark for their outlook on today's market. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday, November 9th 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-the-pros-are-still-cautious-and-whether-you-should-be-too 

Buy Hold Sell: 3 of the ASX’s most-shorted stocks (and 2 long-term compounders)

Total short selling on the ASX has been on the rise since the start of the new financial year, with short interest lifting 53% since then. 

That's according to ShortMan, which tracks the 100 most-shorted stocks on the ASX. As it stands today, there are 14 stocks with a short interest greater than 8%. This means that 8% or more of the shares on a company's register are currently being shorted. 

Hedge fund managers, or long/short funds, use shorting to target (and ultimately benefit) from a stock's falling share price. They rarely target stocks tracking on a steady upwards trend (as this can lead to a short squeeze, as we saw with GameStop). 

According to QVG Capital's Josh Clark, anything above 8% should be considered "big". Investors should keep this in mind because stocks with large short positions are often more volatile and sensitive to market news and announcements. This is true for both positive and negative news - as we have seen in recent weeks, with many of the ASX's most-shorted stocks surging off their lows amid the recent market rally.

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Clark and ClearLife Capital's David Moberley for their analysis of three heavily shorted stocks. 

Plus, for a spoonful of spice, they also name one stock with enviable compounding potential over the long term. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday, November 9th 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-3-of-the-asx-s-most-shorted-stocks-and-2-long-term-compounders 

Buy Hold Sell: 3 dividend traps (and 2 you can trust)

Everyone loves a bargain. It's why Boxing Day sales are such a riot, or why my car salesman father tries to haggle nearly everything he buys. But as in life, sometimes a deal (or yield in this case) is too good to be true. 

Dividend traps occur when investors (like you, my dear reader), are lured in by a high dividend yield before realising the underlying company isn't all it is cracked up to be. Particularly now with inflation running so hot, it's easy to see why alluringly high yields would catch an investor's eye. 

However, if a company's share price continues to plummet, or it turns out the company can't pay the dividend it promised - that seductive dividend yield will turn into a trap.

In this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby is joined by Wheelhouse Partners' Alastair MacLeod and Plato Investment Management's Dr Don Hamson for their analysis of three stocks with sky-high yields that could just be dividend traps. 

And for a little bit of positivity, we also asked our fundies to each name one stock with a dividend yield you can actually trust. 

Now, that's what I call value for money. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 26th October 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-3-dividend-traps-and-2-you-can-trust 

3 stocks to fight the portfolio scaries (and the mistakes that have haunted fund managers in 2022)

Markets this year have been scary. For the first time in decades, the ghosts and ghouls of the investment world have resurrected to haunt global markets - inflation, rising rates, and a war led by a ruthless dictator. 

As a result, indices around the world have been painted in a blood red, with investors (and rightly so) catching a case of the portfolio scaries, moving towards defensives or worse, cashing in their holdings as stocks plummet. 

Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Plato Investment Management's Dr Don Hamson and Wheelhouse Partners' Alastair MacLeod for this Halloween special of Buy Hold Sell. 

In it, our fundies share the biggest portfolio changes they have made this year, the positions that have come back to haunt them, as well as some ghost-busting stocks that can help blow off those cobwebs in your portfolio over the months ahead. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 26th October 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/3-stocks-to-fight-the-portfolio-scaries-and-the-mistakes-that-have-haunted-fund-managers-in-2022 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 of the highest-yielding stocks on the ASX

On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics announced that inflation had surged 1.8% higher in the third quarter, taking the headline inflation rate for the past 12 months to an eye-watering 7.3%. For some context, this is the highest quarterly print since June 1990. 

So what does this mean for income investors? Particularly those who rely so heavily on yield? 

Well, capital appreciation aside, it means that higher inflation is eating into real yields. For example, if a stock has an annual yield of 6%, at this rate, you are still losing a significant percentage of your hard-earned cash. 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Plato Investment Management's Dr Don Hamson and Wheelhouse Partners' Alastair MacLeod for their analysis of five of the highest-yielding stocks on the ASX. 

And just in case you were wondering, all of these stocks have one-year forward yields, including franking, at or higher than Wednesday's print. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 26th October 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-of-the-highest-yielding-stocks-on-the-asx 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 resilient cash cows

Here at Livewire, we are fortunate enough to speak with the country's top investors every day. And if there is one recommendation these pros have consistently repeated in what has become a tumultuous year of rising interest rates, it's the importance of investing in stocks with tangible and growing profits. 

Unlike their long-duration counterparts, stocks earning a nice clip in the here and now have managed to be quite resilient in an otherwise volatile year. 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Medallion Financial's Michael Wayne and Hayborough Investment Partners' Ben Rundle for their analysis of three profitable ASX darlings.

Plus, they also bring along one small cap that they believe will continue to spew out cash (and remain resilient) over the year ahead.   

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 12th October 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-resilient-cash-cows 

Small caps are in a bear market: Here’s what to do now

Remember in early 2021 when investment experts were talking about a "Goldilocks" scenario for markets - that is, when global economies were going from strength to strength, earnings seemed to be going through the roof, and stocks pushed investors' portfolios to lust-worthy heights? 

Well now, Goldilocks has well and truly been discovered by the three bears, with major indices around the world crashing in a risk-off market. 

While the Aussie large-cap index is in correction territory, the S&P/ASX Small Ords Index has suffered far worse, having fallen more than 25% year to date. Anything more than a 20% fall from a peak is considered a bear market. 

So how are the professionals navigating this difficult environment for small caps? Glad you asked. 

Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Medallion Financial's Michael Wayne and Hayborough Investment Partners' Ben Rundle for their top tips on how to do exactly that. 

They share whether they have been buying the dip or selling the bounce in recent months, how much cash they are holding right now in portfolios, the signals they are watching, and six stocks for when markets rebound. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 12th October 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/small-caps-are-in-a-bear-market-here-s-what-to-do-now 

Buy Hold Sell: 3 of Australia’s hottest stocks (and 2 actual buys)

According to those who act with the utmost decorum, there are three subjects that should never be breached at the dining table: religion, politics, and stocks. 

Why? Well, the first two have been widely covered. As for the last subject on that list, by the time your dinner guest, co-worker, and neighbour are talking about a stock, most of the good news is probably (definitely) baked in. 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Hayborough Investment Partners' Ben Rundle and Medallion Financial's Michael Wayne for their analysis of three stocks the market can't stop talking about right now (for all the wrong and some of the right reasons).  

Plus, our fundies also name one underrated stock that you should probably be talking about instead. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 12th October 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-3-of-australia-s-hottest-stocks-and-2-actual-buys 

Buy Hold Sell: 2 big buys (and why fundies are split on tech’s next steps)

After a stellar decade for the dazzling technology sector, these long-duration stocks have fallen back down to earth, taking many an investor's portfolio down with them (this anonymous writer's portfolio included!). 

The local tech index is well and truly in a bear market, having sunken nearly 30% since the beginning of the year. The NASDAQ 100 has suffered a similar fate, also falling 30% over the same time period. 

But with many stocks down as much as 90% since the start of 2022, is tech now the fertile hunting ground both Growth and Value investors are searching for? 

For the last of our sector specials of Buy Hold Sell, it's a Value versus Growth face-off - with Livewire's Ally Selby joined by Investors Mutual's Lucas Goode and Market Matters' James Gerrish for their outlook on the tech sector.

They also analyse three tech darlings - Altium, Megaport and Tyro Payments - and each name their top tech picks for the year ahead.  

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 28th September 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-2-big-buys-and-why-fundies-are-split-on-tech-s-next-steps/ 

Buy Hold Sell: Why healthcare still needs some reviving (and 2 strong buys in the sector)

While healthcare was clearly the lifeblood of the Aussie market over the last decade, the last two years have seen many of these long-term compounders barely register a pulse. 

Sure, pathology players like Sonic Healthcare (ASX: SHL) and Healius (ASX: HLS) benefited from the COVID-19 crisis, but many other favourites slumped with elective surgeries on ice and stimulus payments injected into economies.

So what have the professionals taken away from the last two years of investing in this sector? And now the COVID-19 panic is calming down, could some of the harder-hit healthcare stocks come back to life? 

In the second of our Buy Hold Sell sector specials, Livewire's James Marlay was joined by two stock surgeons - Alphinity's Stuart Welch and WILSONS' Melissa Benson - for their outlook on the sector, as well as the headwinds (and tailwinds) that are swelling as we speak. 

Plus, they also analyse three healthcare favourites and each name a strong buy within this sector right now. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 28th September 2022. You can watch read an edited transcript below. A note that Melissa works on the "sell" side and Stuart works on the "buy" side of markets.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-why-healthcare-still-needs-some-reviving-and-2-strong-buys-in-the-sector/