Buy Hold Sell, by Livewire Markets

Buy Hold Sell: Your most-tipped large caps

Welcome back to Buy Hold Sell for 2022. We've missed every single one of you. And what better way to kick off the very first episode of the year, than to take a look at what matters most to Livewire readers - your top-tipped stocks for the year ahead. 

There's some big names in there (with even bigger market caps) - think the country's best financial players, like Macquarie Group and Westpac, as well as resources and mining giants BHP, Fortescue Metals Group, Mineral Resources, Pilbara Minerals, and Woodside. 

Gambling giant Aristocrat Leisure and Australia's favourite retail conglomerate Wesfarmers also made the list (who doesn't love Bunnings' bangers?). And of course, your top-tipped stocks wouldn't be complete without reader favourite and biotech darling CSL. 

Livewire's very own James Marlay was joined by Prime Value's ST Wong and Airlie Funds' Matt Williams for this cracker of an episode to welcome in the new year. Our fundies analyse your favourite stocks for the year ahead and outline a few big picture ideas to help you navigate the volatile market environment in 2022. 

Plus, will Bitcoin or the Aussie housing market outperform over the 12 months ahead? You won't want to miss this one. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Wednesday 19th January 2022. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-your-most-tipped-large-caps/

21 funds the professionals would invest in

8 of the best stocks to buy in a sell-off

They say there is nothing more expensive than something free, and the same could be said of the stimulus that we have enjoyed over the months and years living through the pandemic. 

While markets around the world have skyrocketed from the lows of the COVID crash, so too has global debt - now at a staggering US$296 trillion according to The Institute of International Finance (or 353% of GDP), US$36 trillion higher than levels seen prior to the pandemic.

And with US banks already expecting the Federal Reserve to announce four interest rate hikes in a bid to stymie inflation in 2022, investors would be wise to brace for increased volatility over the months ahead. 

So as part of our Outlook Series, we spoke to nine of Sydney's best fund managers for the stocks they would buy in the case of market weakness. These include some of Australia's highest-quality tech legends, as well as a handful of global stalwarts currently trading too high. 

You can read an edited transcript or watch a video below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/8-of-the-best-stocks-to-buy-in-a-sell-off/

9 practical tips to make you a more successful investor in 2022

Investors are always at risk of losing sight of the big picture. It's easy to become preoccupied with distracting detail at the expense of good judgement.

This can pay off every now and again – broken clocks tell the time twice a day, as the saying goes - but it doesn’t constitute intelligent investing over the long term.

In other words: don’t take shortcuts when investing. This is especially the case now. High valuations, the prospect of inflation, and rising interest rates mean that winners may be increasingly difficult to come by.

Our fund managers’ investing tips for 2022 cover the investing habits that will avoid shortcuts.

Doing due diligence and fundamental analysis are two of the many tips you’ll find in this wire. “Numbers over narrative,” as Talaria Asset Management founder Chad Padowitz puts it.

You can read an edited transcript below or watch the video: 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/want-to-level-up-your-investing-9-fundies-share-how/

 

9 bold predictions for 2022

When it comes to predictions, there are two types of articles that you'll find. The first type is where people put their minds to what might lie ahead, assess the prevailing conditions, and make a call on what they think will happen. They do so often against their will and with full knowledge that there is an even chance they'll get it wrong. But it is a bit of fun, and it gets the grey matter going.

The other type of article lectures us about how the evidence shows that making predictions is a mug's game. Today, we're going to assume you've read one of these lectures and move on to the fun stuff, thanks to the nine fundies who have given us their bold predictions for 2022.

Interest rates and inflation dominate the views of our guests and remain significant points of disagreement. They've also got their eyes on deflating bubbles in speculative investments, there's a contrarian view on why markets have years of clear skies ahead, and someone reckons the Wallabies will win the Bledisloe Cup! 

4 crowded trades to avoid in 2022

In behavioural finance, herd mentality refers to investors' tendency to follow the decisions of "the crowd". Throwing their own independent analysis to the wind, these investors bet their hard-earned savings on the "next big thing" capturing the market's attention.

From profitless growth stocks with frightening valuations, pumped-up retailers, reopening trades and of course, US tech, the danger for investors is that these so-called consensus trades can get crowded, overheat, and melt away to nothing. 

So, in this podcast, we asked eight expert fund managers to tell us about the crowded trades they believe could run out of steam in 2022. To read a transcript, click the link below: 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-crowded-trades-to-avoid-in-2022/

The #1 stock picks for 2022

Well, folks, it's the moment you've been waiting for. We've scoured Australia for the country's finest fund managers, who in this video, will share their highest-conviction call for the year ahead. And this year, we've pulled out the big guns.

For the first time, we've headed down to Melbourne to speak to top-performing fundies like global growth stock picker Nick Griffin and Aussie value investor Richard Ivers. And, of course, we sat down with some of Sydney's best portfolio managers as well (including the top-performing stock pickers from 2021).

A quick look at previous year's picks shows our fundies' favourite stocks reward close attention. In 2021, our 10 fundies picks delivered a total return of 45.14% (when viewed as an equal-weighted portfolio), beating the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries and MSCI World Index's returns of 10.93% and 18.43% respectively year to date.

I know, I know - 2021 was a good year. However, during tumultuous 2020, our fundies picks managed to generate a return of 13.88%, beating the benchmark by a whopping 10.26%.

Meantime, in 2019, our fundies selections roared to deliver a total return of 59% (an outperformance of 35.86%).

If you would prefer to read a transcript, or watch a video, check out the link below: 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-1-stock-picks-for-2022

Our featured experts include:

• Anthony Aboud, Perpetual Asset Management 
• Chad Padowitz, Talaria Asset Management
• Eleanor Swanson, Firetrail Investments 
• Nick Griffin, Munro Partners 
• Simon Shields, Monash Investors 
• Richard Ivers, Prime Value Asset Management
• David Moberley, Paradice Investment Management
• Mark Landau, L1 Capital 
• Hamish Carlisle, Merlon Capital 
• Adrian Martuccio, Bell Asset Management 
• Bob Desmond, Claremont Global 
• Dean Fergie, Cyan Investment Management 
• Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management 
• Nick Pashias, Antares Equities 
• Steve Johnson, Forager Funds 
• Steve Black, Pengana Capital Group 
• Chris Demasi, Montaka Global Investments 
• Michael Steele, Yarra Capital Management

The 5 bulls (and 3 bears) you‘ll meet in 2022

2021 was undoubtedly a year for the bulls. If you were fully invested in the S&P 500 on January 1st, you made a very handy return of almost 22%. And remember - that’s after having already recovered the losses of 2020.

2022 will be more of the same according to most of our fundies.

Of the nine we interviewed, five were bullish and three were bearish.

The arithmetic "quickdraws" among you will realise that this only adds up to eight. Chad Padowitz’s call snuck through to the keeper. He sounds bearish but we'll let you decide. We’ll be sure to hold you to a call next year, Chad.

You can read or watch the video below: 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-5-bulls-and-3-bears-you-ll-meet-in-2022

Ouch! Fundies reveal their worst calls from 2021

With the S&P 500 and the S&P/ASX 200 racing ahead approximately 27% and 10% in 2021, it's fair to say investors have had a surprisingly good year. Despite the ups and downs of COVID-19 (of which we are still suffering through now), lockdowns, and border closures, if investors were fully invested, they would have walked away with truly impressive returns over the past 12 months. 

That said, there are always some positions that hurt more than others, which cause both headache and heartache as we watch their share prices fall lower and lower. 

And while it's easier said than done to cut your losses, as revealed in this video, it can sometimes pay to stay convicted in a poorly performing position. 

As part of our annual Outlook Series, we took it to nine of Australia's most respected fund managers to share their worst trade of 2021. From companies that saw their share prices halve during the year, to calamity over a capital raising, an IPO gone wrong and an opportunity forgone, our Sydney-based fundies candidly reveal the painful positions (or lack thereof) that kept them up at night during the 12 months just past. 

Plus, they share the lessons they took away from these headaches so you can better invest in 2022.   

Our featured experts include:

• Simon Shields, Monash Investors 
• Eleanor Swanson, Firetrail Investments 
• Steve Johnson, Forager Funds 
• David Moberley, Paradice Investment Management 
• Hamish Carlisle, Merlon Capital Partners
• Chris Demasi, Montaka Global Investments 
• Bob Desmond, Claremont Global 
• Anthony Aboud, Perpetual Asset Management 
• Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management 

The dogs and darlings of 2021 (and the stocks to watch in 2022)

Just like Tim Paine for cricket fans, La Niña ruining Summer plans, or the new Home Alone reboot (or as some people call it, a colossal waste of time), the S&P/ASX 200 has had a handful of disappointments (or dogs, if we are being honest) in 2021. 

Every portfolio has at least one - or a few - and even the professionals will make some bad calls. But with the Index racing around 10% ahead since the beginning of 2021 (despite inflationary fears, lockdowns and new COVID variants), there has also been a fair share of darlings. 

So in this end of year special, Livewire's James Marlay is joined by Tribeca Investment Partners' Jun Bei Liu and Market Matters' James Gerrish for their take on the highs and lows of 2021. 

Plus, they also point to the headwinds and tailwinds investors should look out for over the year ahead, as well as a few winning stocks that could soar in 2022. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was shot on Tuesday 7th December 2021. You can read an edited transcript below:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-dogs-and-darlings-of-2021-and-the-stocks-to-watch-in-2022/