Buy Hold Sell, by Livewire Markets

Ouch! 10 awful calls from 2020

There are some trades that so fill us with joy we become like a proud parent championing their children's sporting achievements, talking the ear off family and friends, neighbours and colleagues, lovers, enemies - anyone who will listen.

Then there are those that make us sweat, keep us up at night, and force us to reflect on how it went all so very wrong. 

As part of our annual Outlook Series, we asked 10 of Australia's most talented fund managers to share their worst trade from 2020. From aircraft stocks plummeting to capital-raising opportunities foregone, from selling too soon to missing out on a sector rally, the fundies candidly reveal the trades that caused them both headache and heartache during the year just passed - and whether they believe the stock will be able to turn around over the coming 12 months. 

Our featured experts include:

• Matthew Booker, Spheria Asset Management
• Kelli Meagher, Sage Capital
• Vihari Ross, Magellan
• Chris Demasi, Montaka Global Investments
• Dr Bianca Ogden, Platinum Asset Management
• Olivia Salmon, Lennox Capital
• Ben Clark, TMS Capital
• Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management
• Julia Weng, Paradice Investment Management
• David Allingham, Eley Griffiths Group

Positioning portfolio's for 2021

An investor's portfolio can say a lot about their outlook for markets. With vaccines on the way, a settled election and the index returning to its February 2020 highs the consensus is painting a rosy picture for equities. However, making a return on this good news after the fact is easier said than done.

That's like calling a bookmaker after the Melbourne Cup and saying, "Makybe Diva's won, I want to put some money on it." says Steve Johnson of Forager Funds.

In this thematic, Matthew Kidman leads the panel with Steve and Ben Rundle of NAOS Asset Management as the trio discuss their insights for 2021, the current opportunity set in the market and which sectors are presenting valuable opportunities right now.

Buy Hold Sell: 5 of the most traded stocks

The extreme volatility and sudden decline in asset values caused by the March sell-off have had a considerable impact on investors. Between January and May 2020, 54% of investors made changes to their portfolio, says the ASX Australian investor survey. Either looking to limit their losses or take advantage of deep discounts, investors were incredibly active. These two camps repeatedly came to together to make the most divisive stocks also some of the most frequently traded.

To discuss these companies, Matthew Kidman is joined by Steve Johnson of Forager Funds and Ben Rundle from NAOS Asset Management. The trio consider companies including, 1) Flightcentre - the travel company who rallied 50% in the last month 2) NextDC - who rode a surge in demand for data centres throughout the year and 3) a2 Milk -  who hit record highs in June but now are losing ground with rising China tensions.

Buy Hold Sell: 3 popular and 2 overlooked 'value' stocks

The rotation from growth into value is well upon us with many beaten down stocks now finding favour in the market. As the country returns to a semblance of normality, brokers are upgrading their outlook on these stocks and investors are following.

To discuss these stocks, Matthew Kidman is joined by Steve Johnson of Forager Funds and Ben Rundle from NAOS Asset Management. The trio consider companies including,

1. Westpac - who has had a tough year in the headlines but is now backed by 6 of the largest brokers to outperform
2. Woodside - the oil giant up 30% in the last month and
3. Vicinity Centres - a shopping centre exposed REIT that could benefit from the country's reopen (Broker ratings can be found below, data provided by FN Arena).

Additionally, each fundie brings their best pick for an overlooked 'value' stock. 

5 all-weather stocks

The past year has shown volatility like no other. After hitting rock bottom in March, the market has shot up over 50%, in just nine months. Nail biting investors sitting on the side lines have realised that owning strong, resilient companies will always win at the end of the day, no matter what is thrown at them. 

In this episode of Buy Hold Sell, Bella Kidman leads the panel in a discussion on 5 all-weather stocks - companies that will thrive in any market condition. Joining Bella is Ben Clark from TMS Capital and David Wilson from First Sentier Investors who discuss stocks including, 1) Macquarie Group - the ASX darling up 11% this month 2) Resmed - a biotech giant benefitting from the vaccine news and 3) Brambles - the supply chain company with stunning FY20 results. 

Additionally, the pair each bring their best pick for an all-weather stock they see performing 'rain, hail or shine'.

Is growth at a reasonable price possible in 2020?

In 2020 growth stocks dominated across markets. So much so that value investing has now had it worst run in twenty years. The speed at which these companies grew captivated investors and helped pull markets in a march upward to their February 2020 levels. However, as vaccine candidates emerge and US political tensions settle, fundies are calling for reason to return to markets.

In this thematic, Bella Kidman leads the panel in a discussion as to whether it's possible for investors to find 'the best of both worlds' - growth at a reasonable price. Bella is joined by Ben Clark from TMS Capital and David Wilson from First Sentier Investors  who share their thoughts on the current outlook for equities and their top pick for growth at a reasonable price.

Buy Hold Sell: 5 stocks ready to take flight

This week, the world received the news that not only one, but two potential COVID-19 vaccines had been produced. Does this mean that 2021 goes back to normal and the world reopens? As this confidence grows, investors are increasingly looking to capitalise on companies that have been beaten down by the pandemic, but have a lot of upside potential.

In this episode of Buy Hold Sell, Ben Clark from TMS Capital and David Wilson from First Sentier Investors discuss the companies that are riding the vaccine wave, and will benefit from a reopened economy in 2021.

They include 1) QANTAS – the airline beaten down by the pandemic but looking to make a soaring recovery, 2) Scentre group – the shopping centre company up 35% this month and 3) Sydney Airport – an obvious beneficiary but trading at a PE of 101.

Ben and David also each bring a stock that they think will receive a tailwind as the economy reopens in 2021. 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 bulletproof growth stocks

After a tumultuous year in which growth stocks dominated, the announcement of a successful vaccine has investors questioning whether these trends will continue. With low returns on offer elsewhere, investors are turning to equities, looking for the bulletproof returns that continue to run long into the future.

Tech darlings like Netflix, Alibaba and Spotify garnered significant attention from investors. However, Bob Desmond  from Evans and Partners and Joe Magyer from Lakehouse Capital are not so convinced.

In this episode of Buy Hold Sell, Bob and Joe discuss these three growth stocks that ran in 2020 and whether they still see value in them. The pair also reveal their top pick for a resilient stock which they hold primed for growth.

Stars and gripes: 2 standout stocks and a sector to avoid post US election

The anticipated blue wave carrying Joe Biden to the US presidency may have been overstated but history suggests a divided government is no bad thing for markets. And while Big Tech is a clear winner if governance is restrained and the Biden administration has its hands tied on issues like antitrust and privacy, Healthcare will not be far behind with the prospect of intense government scrutiny also fading.

However, Bob Desmond, Head of International Equities at Evans and Partners and Joe Magyer, Chief Investment Officer at Lakehouse Capital, are avoiding the energy sector. A Republican-controlled Senate will likely block green-energy policies while fossil-fuel stocks will continue to face headwinds.

In this thematic, Bob and Joe provide more detail on the US Election, including their top stock picks.

Buy Hold Sell: 5 stocks sailing on structural tailwinds

Cashless society, the shift to the cloud and food delivery are three structural growth trends sweeping global markets. 2020 saw the tailwinds fanning these trends escalate into a full-blown cyclone, and the stocks in today’s episode have surged as a result. 

But investors should keep in mind that a good narrative doesn’t always convert to a great investment. In this episode, Joe Magyer from Lakehouse Capital and Bob Desmond from Evans & Partners share their insights on the household names of Visa, Microsoft and Hello Fresh. Each of our guests also share a company that they believe is a compelling opportunity with one of the ideas pitched being described as ‘wildly profitable’. 

Click on the player below or read the transcript to access this exclusive episode of Buy Hold Sell, brought to you by Livewire.