Buy Hold Sell, by Livewire Markets

Buy Hold Sell: 2 high-conviction fundies analyse each other's top picks

There are many market maxims that investors hold close to their hearts. Here are just a few of them:

• It's time in the market not timing the market.
• Buy the rumour, sell the fact.
• Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful!
• It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong. 

But perhaps one that should also be added to the list is "Two views make a market" - highlighting that to buy shares in a company, someone has to be willing to sell them - and vice versa. 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Loftus Peak's Alex Pollak and Magellan's Alan Pullen for a bit of a challenge. 

We've tasked our fund managers to analyse each other's highest-conviction ideas in their portfolios today - including stocks like Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and SAP SE (NYSE: SAP). 

Plus, they also each name a stock that they would dub a high-conviction "SELL". As you'll soon find out, both of these stocks have sunk into the red in the past week. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 17 July 2024. You can read an edited transcript below. 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-2-high-conviction-fundies-analyse-each-other-s-top-picks/ 

Why you should only focus on your best ideas (and 2 to get you started)

Back in May, Livewire sat down with the chief investment officer of a family office - i.e. the steward of a billionaire client's wealth. 

The main takeaway, for this anonymous writer at least, was that Australia's ultra-wealthy are on the hunt for concentrated, high-conviction funds - those that hold a smaller number of stocks, look very different from the benchmark, and generate returns far different from the index too. 

So in this episode of Buy Hold Sell, we're hoping we can learn what sets these types of funds apart - and of course, whether investors at home can replicate these strategies too. 

To do that, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Magellan's Alan Pullen and Loftus Peak's Alex Pollak. They share the case for concentrated strategies, how they identify the stocks that make their way into portfolios, the perfect number of holdings, ideal holding times and turnover. 

They also provide an example of a stock that didn't perform as expected and what they learnt from that, their best-performing positions since their funds' inception, and their highest conviction ideas from their portfolio of best ideas for markets today. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was recorded on Wednesday, 17 July 2024. You can read an edited transcript below.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-you-should-only-focus-on-your-best-ideas-and-2-to-get-you-started 

 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 mispriced growth stocks

Growth stocks have had a truly spectacular 12 months, with many fortunes being made from investing in stocks like NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), which have soared 154% and 170%, respectively. 

In the last year alone, the NASDAQ 100 has lifted 26% - meaning, over the past five years, the bourse is now up 153%. Ahh! The benefit of retrospect. 

So, is there any value left on offer among the world's greatest growth stocks? 

To find out, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Loftus Peak's Alex Pollak and Magellan's Alan Pullen. 

They analysed three growth stocks, including Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and each named a growth stock that they believe has been undervalued by the market. 

Happy bargain hunting!

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was recorded on Wednesday 17 July 2024. You can read an edited transcript below. 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-mispriced-growth-stocks/ 

Buy Hold Sell: 2 high-conviction healthcare winners for FY25

Healthcare stocks have been some of Australia's most consistent wealth generators, with stocks like CSL (ASX: CSL) skyrocketing more than 6000% since listing on the ASX 25 years ago.

 

Over the past 20 years, the S&P/ASX Health Care Index has far outperformed the rest of the market, lifting 994% compared to the S&P/ASX 200's 121% over that same period. By a long shot, it has been the ASX's best-performing sector over the past 20 years.

 

And yet, while COVID-19 put our health back into the spotlight, healthcare stocks have been a mixed bag since then. Yes, the developed world's populations are ageing - which spells good things for healthcare companies, but many of the sector's former darlings are now on life support.

 

So how can investors identify the companies with a clean bill of health? To find out, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by two healthcare analysts in Alphinity Investment Management's Stuart Welch and Yarra Capital Management's Marcus Ryan.

 

They share some of the trends they are seeing in terms of valuation, cost pressures, and supply chain challenges, whether investors need specialist knowledge to be successful when investing in the sector, and the one non-negotiable healthcare companies need to make their way into these fund managers' portfolios.

 

Plus, they also analyse three healthcare companies, including CSL (ASX: CSL), Ansell (ASX: ANN) and Sonic Healthcare (ASX: SHL), and each name their highest conviction stock pick within the sector.

 

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 10 July 2024. You can read an edited transcript below.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-2-high-conviction-healthcare-winners-for-fy25 

2 big buys (and the next steps for consumer stocks)

Consumer stocks are split into two distinct categories - those that are sensitive to economic cycles (discretionaries) and those that aren't (staples). Both, however, have been on a tear over the past 12 months, despite a cost of living crisis that is continuing to take a bite out of Australians' wallets. 

Take Lovisa, for instance, which has soared 59% over the past 12 months. Or Wesfarmers, up 35%. Or Nick Scali, up 44%. Meanwhile, consumer staples stocks, like Bega Cheese, Inghams, and Treasury Wine have risen 41%, 35% and 11% respectively. 

All this is to say that the sector is looking pretty hot - other than the supermarkets, of course. However, with savings now starting to dry up, and the economy beginning to slow, how much longer can these stocks hold up? 

 

To find out, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by two consumer-focused analysts in Alphinity Investment Management's Jacob Barnes and Wilson Asset Management's Hailey Kim. 

They share where they are seeing opportunities within the two sectors, some of the trends they believe investors should be aware of and outline which factors will be important to success over the coming 12 months. 

Plus, they analyse three major players within the sectors and share their highest conviction buys right now. 

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 3 July 2024. You can read an edited transcript below. 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/2-big-buys-and-the-next-steps-for-consumer-stocks 

 

 

Buy Hold Sell: 2 high conviction tech stocks for the next 12 months

Over the past 12 months, the S&P/ASX All Tech Index has soared more than 28%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ has skyrocketed nearly 33%, with investors betting big on the revolutionary change promised by artificial intelligence. 

That's not to say there aren't risks - inflation remains stickier than we would have hoped, interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer (in Australia at least), and earnings need to deliver for companies to keep pushing higher. 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by two tech analysts in Wilson Asset Management's Sam Koch and Alphinity Investment Management's Andrey Mironenko. 

They analyse three of the market's tech darlings, including Life360 (ASX: 360), NEXTDC (ASX: NXT) and Data#3 (ASX: DTL), share how they are invested in artificial intelligence on the local bourse, and name some of the factors that will be key to investors success over the next 12 months. 

Plus, they each name their highest conviction tech stock for markets today. 

Note: This episode of Buy Hold Sell was recorded on Wednesday 3 July 2024. You can read an edited transcript below. 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-2-high-conviction-tech-stocks-for-the-next-12-months/ 

Buy Hold Sell: 3 themes (and 6 stocks) with serious momentum

Everyone loves a theme these days. Whether you’re an individual investor looking to capitalise on both short and long-term trends, or a product issuer looking to provide access to opportunities, themes are dominating the way we think and the way we invest.

And while themes will fall in and out of fashion (lithium, for example), it is important for us as investors to be aware of them and to understand how to access them, should we choose to participate.

In that vein, in this episode of Buy Hold Sell we’re unpacking three of the biggest themes from the first half of 2024 and asking if they still have legs.

To do that, Grady Wulff sat down with Steve Johnson from Forager Funds Management, and Luke Laretive from Seneca Financial Solutions.

And, for something a bit different, Luke and Steve each name a stock they like within each theme – that’s right, six hot buys to see out the rest of the year.

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, 19 June 2024.

2 stocks fundies would bet the house on (and worst calls from the first half)

Boy oh boy, it has been a big first half. Interest rate expectations have whipped around, sticky inflation has confounded central banks, most commodities are surging - paticularly silver and gold - and AI has lit a fire under.... well, everything. 

Did we miss anything? That's right, the ASX 200, like many global markets, is trading at all time highs, at the same time many are calling for a recession in the next 12 months. 

By any stretch, that's a lot to unpack. To help untangle the market web, Grady Wulff sat down with Steve Johnson from Forager Funds Management, and Luke Laretive from Seneca Financial Solutions. 

In this episode, they work through what has and hasn't worked so far in 2024, share what they think will drive markets for the rest of the year, and highlight one thing investors could get wrong over the next six months. 

It wouldn't be an episode of Buy Hold Sell without talking stocks, so they each share their worst stock call so far in 2024, as well as one stock they would bet the house on (if they had to). 

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 19 June 2024.

Buy Hold Sell: 3 of 2024’s hottest stocks (and 2 in the too hard basket)

End of financial year can be a drag. With tax time upon us, we need to give up an evening, possibly a weekend, to get our affairs in order.

But EOFY also affords us the opportunity to look over our investment portfolios, pat ourselves on the back for what has gone well, and undertake the cathartic experience of culling the underperformers. 

It has been a surprisingly strong first half, despite high interest rates and inflation sticking around for longer than we would like, so hopefully it will be more of the former, and less of the latter.

With all that in mind, Grady Wulff sat down with Luke Laretive from Seneca Financial Solutions and Steve Johnson from Forager Funds Management for their analysis of three of the first half’s hottest stocks - all of which are trading near 52-week highs. 

Plus, they also each name a stock that is in the too-hard basket right now. 

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 19 June 2024.

Buy Hold Sell: 5 stocks with sustainable and fully franked dividends

Franking credits are important for many investors, particularly those operating in a low or no-tax environment. A company paying a 5% fully franked yield, for example, gets grossed up to around 7% after franking. Juicy. 

More than half of the companies listed on the S&P/ASX200 either fully pay or partially pay franked dividends, and it is important to know the relevant franking level.  

With that in mind, Livewire's Ally Selby recently sat down with Peter Gardner from Plato, and Andrew Fraser from Merlon to discuss five stocks with sustainable and fully franked dividends. 

For those unfamiliar with franking, they also discuss why franking is important and how it factors into their respective investment processes. 

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 5 June 2024.