Buy Hold Sell, by Livewire Markets

Opportunity or emergency? A guide to assessing capital raisings

In 2019, nobody would have expected the likes of Cochlear to hold a capital raising anytime soon, but amid a severe and sudden collapse in earnings, companies have asked investors for more than $9 billion of equity capital to survive and in some cases, thrive. In this extended interview, Michelle Lopez of Aberdeen Standard Investments and Ben Rundle from NAOS Asset Management discuss:

• How to assess a good deal
• The deal breakers of a capital raising
• The structure of a capital raising
• How to manage capital raisings in your portfolio
• Current capital raising opportunities

On our website, we've published a table to show you equity raisings announced due to COVID-19 and the ones Michelle and Ben are participating in. You can also access the video and full transcript on that page.

Note: This video was recorded on 22 April 2020.

Buy Hold Sell: 5 pandemic-resistant growth stocks

It may be a gloomy backdrop for the economy as many companies cancel their earnings guidance due to the coronavirus-driven downturn. But even in this environment, there are a handful of stocks whose earnings refuse to go into lockdown.

In this episode, Michelle Lopez from Aberdeen Standard Investments and Ben Rundle of NAOS Asset Management join Vishal Teckchandani discuss 5 businesses that can help immunise your portfolio from a cyclical slump: 1) a company benefiting from booming data consumption; 2) a tech stock bucking the guidance-scrapping trend; 3) a business providing essential services to households; 4) a WAAAX stock that keeps on chugging and 5) a small-cap riding higher usage of voice, video and messaging apps.

Note: This video was recorded on 22 April 2020. Access the full transcript (including stock codes) and podcast here.

Buy Hold Sell: 6 companies that are set to come out swinging

In the midst of a crisis, it’s time to start thinking long term. In five years time, what companies will still be growing? Which companies have what it takes to prosper through this crisis?

In this special global equities edition of Buy Hold Sell Matthew Kidman is joined by Charlie Aitken from Aitken Investment Management and Nick Griffin from Munro Partners to debate the prospects of Nike, popular streaming service Netflix, Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba and electric car juggernaut Tesla, along with 2 other, interesting companies that are set to soar in the long term.

Notes: This episode was filmed on 7 April 2020. You can access the video, podcast or edited transcript (containing the stock codes) for this Buy Hold Sell episode here.

Portfolio strategy: 4 ways to win in a changing world

The lyrics “turn and face the strange” from David Bowie’s 1971 hit song “Changes” could not be a more fitting way to describe the challenges investors are facing today. COVID-19 has raised doubts about themes that many considered structural and sound such as the desire (or need) to travel, the use of office space and the pain befalling banks and insurers as a result of low interest rates and a global economy veering into recession.

In this extended interview, Charlie Aitken of Aitken Investment Management and Nick Griffin of Munro Partners discuss the big changes occurring in consumer behaviour and markets as well as “dead-end streets” – as Bowie put it - to avoid. They also share 4 stock ideas; companies with “fortress balance sheets” set to emerge even stronger on the other side.

Notes: This episode was filmed on 7 April 2020. You can access the video, podcast or edited transcript (which includes the stock codes) for this episode here.

Buy Hold Sell: 6 international stocks for the coronavirus economy

Who knew that in 1982 when Fat Larry’s Band sang “Zoom” that it would become synonymous with the name of the A$57 billion software company that’s enabled the work-from-home era? Despite mass-lockdowns, Zoom and a bunch of other companies are seeing their share prices ‘flyin’ high in a neon sky’ amid the coronavirus economy.

 

In this global equities special, Nick Griffin of Munro Partners and Charlie Aitken of Aitken Investment Management chat to Matthew Kidman about the prospects for Zoom (NAS:ZM); media streaming app Spotify (NYS:SPOT); e-commerce and cloud titan Amazon (NAS:AMZN) and COVID-19 vaccine frontrunner Johnson & Johnson (NYS:JNJ). They also nominate 2 other high quality, reasonably priced stocks which may see ‘no turnin’ back’ down the track.

Notes: This episode was filmed on 7 April 2020. You can access the video, podcast or edited transcript (containing the ticker codes) for this Buy Hold Sell episode below here.

 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 beaten-down stocks, and 1 ‘high octane’ idea

One of the themes that emerged from Saturday's extended interview with Ben McGarry of Totus Capital and Steve Johnson from Forager Funds was for investors to check their portfolio and evaluate the balance sheets of their holdings.

In this episode, we get Ben and Steve to put some widely-held stocks under a stress test and gauge whether they have what it takes to ride out the rapidly deteriorating economic environment. The names include Tabcorp, Carsales.com, Afterpay, G8 Education and Super Retail Group.

Steve also offers Livewire subscribers a 'high octane' stock idea that he reckons is being "dramatically mispriced". This company has government and corporate contracts, and could see a severalfold increase if it retains them and conditions bounce back.

Notes: You can access the video and edited transcript for this Buy Hold Sell episode below here: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-beaten-down-stocks-and-1-high-octane-idea

This episode was filmed on 25 March 2020.

Have share price falls overshot economic reality?

The Australian equity market at one stage fell nearly 35% from its all-time high in just over a month amid the COVID-19 crisis.

The challenge for investors is working out - against huge swathes of data and human emotion – whether shares are priced correctly against wartime stimulus measures, an impending recession and a pandemic with vague signs of subsiding.

In this interview, Ben McGarry of Totus Capital and Steve Johnson of Forager Funds join James Marlay to debate whether the market has priced in the economic situation efficiently. They also discuss whether investors are getting sucked in by “bear market bounces”, important things to check within your portfolio and the greatest opportunities in this environment.

Notes: You can access the video, podcast or edited transcript for this Buy Hold Sell episode here.

This episode was filmed on 25 March 2020.

Buy Hold Sell: 5 cash earners for a crisis

With Covid-19 effectively cancelling the economy, nothing is more important from an investment perspective than a company's ability to generate cash flow to get through this unprecedented period.

As such, we've brought together Steve Johnson of Forager Funds and Ben McGarry from Totus Capital to discuss stocks poised to be cash earners or cash burners in a cycle that'll likely be marked by Australia's first recession in nearly three decades.

The companies are 1) National Australia Bank, whose share price recently fell to 1996 lows, 2) Cochlear, hit by a triple whammy of Covid-19, an adverse court ruling and the need to raise capital and 3) Xero, which is facing a fall in subscriptions as businesses close their doors. Steve and Ben also share 2 small-cap ideas they reckon will thrive on the other side of the crisis.

Notes: You can access the video or edited transcript for this Buy Hold Sell episode here.

This episode was recorded on 25 March 2020.

Buy Hold Sell: 5 stocks for stormy markets

A tornado has ripped through markets in the last three months, knocking the S&P/ASX 200 Index down 30% in just 30 days. With countries shutting borders, economic activity plunging and forecasts of a sharp recession gaining traction on the back of Covid-19, risk assets remain susceptible to more damaging gusts of wind.

It is paramount then that each stock in your portfolio is able to not only weather the downturn, but capture an upswing too. In this episode of Buy Hold Sell, Tim Serjeant of Eley Griffiths and Chris Stott from 1851 Capital join Matthew Kidman to review 5 stocks touted to have defensive earnings streams, as well as growth options, strong balance sheets and, are operating in industries that are better placed during recessions.

Please note this episode was recorded on 11 March 2020. Access the full video and transcript here.

Is this really the next GFC?

15 trading sessions: That’s all it took for the ASX200 to collapse by a stunning 32% as of midday today, erasing four whole years of gains. This is a conundrum because, while some screaming bargains have appeared, the market is in freefall. 

Given this strong downward momentum, we brought this interview forward for you as Chris Stott of 1851 Capital and Tim Serjeant of Eley Griffiths discuss this very issue here.

Watch (or listen) as the one and only Matthew Kidman asks our guests whether this is the next GFC, some strategies they are using to manage portfolios, if it’s time to buy yet, and the signals they want to see before it’s time to get back in. 

Take note because, as Matt reminds us, ‘picking bottoms can be a messy business’...  

Access the video and transcript (available shortly) over here.