Buy Hold Sell, by Livewire Markets

Buy Hold Sell: 5 stocks sailing on structural tailwinds

Cashless society, the shift to the cloud and food delivery are three structural growth trends sweeping global markets. 2020 saw the tailwinds fanning these trends escalate into a full-blown cyclone, and the stocks in today’s episode have surged as a result. 

But investors should keep in mind that a good narrative doesn’t always convert to a great investment. In this episode, Joe Magyer from Lakehouse Capital and Bob Desmond from Evans & Partners share their insights on the household names of Visa, Microsoft and Hello Fresh. Each of our guests also share a company that they believe is a compelling opportunity with one of the ideas pitched being described as ‘wildly profitable’. 

Click on the player below or read the transcript to access this exclusive episode of Buy Hold Sell, brought to you by Livewire. 

Buy Hold Sell: 6 Stocks for 10 years

Short-term market volatility has been on the mind of Livewire contributors, but on a long-term view, the market often proves rational. With the rise of passive investing and widely skewed valuations, many investors are looking for stocks that they can ‘set and forget’.

Long investment horizons remove the influence of market hype. As fundamentals and long-term trends take the main stage, quality companies rise to the top.

Here, Mathew Kidman from Centennial Funds leads the discussion on those stocks you can ‘leave in the drawer’ and find a nice gain some years down the track. Joined by Jason Kururangi from Aberdeen Standard Investment and Catherine Allfrey from WaveStone Capital, the panel considers 6 popular stocks including Afterpay, Woodside Petroleum, and CSL Ltd, and whether they see value in holding them for the next 10 years.

2007 highs in sight, can it beat beaten and how to buy in

The March lows from the impacts of coronavirus spelled the sharpest correction experienced in decades. Yet from this fall, we are experiencing a recovery almost as sharp. Spurred by fiscal stimulus, revised positive earnings and reopenings nation-wide, the market continues to grind upward. 

With a US election looming and growing impatience for a coronavirus vaccine, can the market continue to grow and soon reach the highs of the 2007 bull market?

In this thematic, Jason Kururangi from Aberdeen Standard Investments and Catherine Allfrey from WaveStone Capital determine the catalysts needed to reach these market highs, 4 stock picks to take advantage of this growth and whether they see new market highs coming in the next 12 months.

Buy Hold Sell: 5 ex-20 stocks on a high

Some investors like the idea of treating the stock market like an extended fishing trip. They'll carefully pick their spot (think investment universe), patiently wait for the right opportunity, and aggressively reel it in when the time comes and hope that it's a big one.

For others, that approach may incite the reaction from the famous meme "Ain't nobody got time for that" and favour buying stocks that are already running hard. We call them momentum traders.

In this episode, we've picked out five ex-20 companies the market loves right now, but we've also got fundies Catherine Allfrey of WaveStone Capital and Jason Kururangi of Aberdeen Standard Investments to apply a qualitative overlay over the bullish behaviour of Altium, Northern Star Resources, and Pro Medicus.

Is chasing these momentum stocks akin to falling for the hook, line and sinker? Catherine and Jason discuss that question here, and also bring their two best Ideas in an uptrend but offering good value.

Visit Livewire Markets to access the video and transcript for this episode.

Note: This episode was filmed on 21 October 2020.

Buy Hold Sell: 5 Livewire reader requests

With a growing army of investors hungry for knowledge and insights, we're getting more and more queries to cover specific stocks from fans of Livewire.

In this episode of Buy Hold Sell, Matt Williams of Airlie Funds Management and Sean Fenton of Sage Capital dedicate their time to our readers and have a red-hot crack at five stocks you want an opinion about.

They include 1) Wesfarmers - which Matt reckons operates the "best business in Australia"; 2) Beach Energy - whose revenues are holding up thanks to its solid contracts and net cash on the balance sheet; 3) CSL – a company that Sean believes will rebound and continue to grow strongly; 4) Coca-Cola Amatil – a consumer business that’s seen deteriorating profitability, and 5) A2 Milk - a market darling until just recently.

Visit Livewire Markets for the edited transcript, podcast and more great insights.

Note: This video was recorded on 7 October 2020.

4 beaten down sectors (and if now's the time to buy)

The ramifications of Covid-19 have been felt across economies around the globe, however, it has become evident that not all sectors have been treated equally. With extended lockdown and border closures looking set to continue, is there any hope for the most vulnerable industries? Tourism, REITs, banks and energy have all fallen victim to the shocks in consumer spending, government policy and travel restrictions brought about by the pandemic.

Despite these short-term hardships however, there’s an abundance of value and opportunity for the patient investor willing to dig into some of these distressed pockets of the market, explain Matt Williams from Airlie Funds Management and Sean Fenton from Sage Capital. In this thematic, Matt and Sean discuss whether they are bullish or bearish across the four worst affected sectors, as well as the stocks that are set to benefit from a return to relative normality.

Visit Livewire Markets to access the edited transcript or podcast for this episode.

Note: This episode was filmed on 7 October 2020.

Buy Hold Sell: 7 stocks for offence and defence

It goes without saying that the outlook for markets and the global economy is highly uncertain due to COVID-19. The bulls believe we're in for a V-shaped recovery in 2021 if 'Operation Warp Speed' delivers a vaccine by year-end. On the other hand, there could be no cure. Or one which is ineffective or refused by a large segment of the population.

In an investing context, one strategy to play an uncertain outcome is to build a portfolio comprising quality companies whose earnings can re-rate materially in an optimistic scenario, whilst holding defensive stocks if the vaccine thesis doesn't pan out.

In this episode, Sean Fenton of Sage Capital and Matt Williams of Airlie Funds Management discuss seven companies that can set you up for offence and defence. They kick-off by discussing Qantas, Coles and Cochlear, and then each bring their best growth idea and their top defensive stock.

Visit Livewire Markets to access the video and edited transcript for this episode.

Note: This interview was recorded on 7 October 2020.

Buy Hold Sell: 5 of the most traded stocks

For months now several of Livewire's contributors have consistently warned about increasingly stretched valuations across growth and technology stocks. And it looks like investors are finally paying attention.

During September, momentum-driven names including BNPL and e-commerce stocks largely kept out of the limelight insofar as the most-traded stocks on share trading platform Bell Direct go. Instead, investors rotated into beaten-down and defensive names.

Here, Jessica Amir from Bell Direct shares what some of the most popular ASX stocks were during the month, and gets Michael O'Neill from Investors Mutual and Neil Margolis of Merlon Capital to opine whether these companies offer attractive right now. The companies discussed range from a critical infrastructure asset, to a major bank, and an industrial business proving resilient amid the pandemic.

Visit Livewire Markets for the edited transcript and video for this episode as well as more great insights. 

Note: This episode was filmed on 23 September 2020.

Building a sustainable income portfolio

Since 2010 traditional blue-chip yield stocks have become notoriously unreliable for consistent income.

Take for example NAB's dividend, which peaked at $1.98 in FY 14 before being chopped to $1.66 and then $1.13 in the prior two financial years. That's a 42% pay cut compounded with a significant decline in the bank's share price. Meanwhile, Telstra and Woolworths' dividends are 48% and 32% lower, respectively, since peaking some five years ago.

This volatility of income underscores why it's critical for investors to assess the sustainability of cash flows when considering dividend stocks, especially now given the level of stimulus sloshing around the economy, according to Neil Margolis of Merlon Capital and Michael O'Neill of Investors Mutual.

In this thematic, they break down what they look for in yield stocks, how they manage risks within their strategies, sectors they’re looking at today for income, and their top ex-20 ideas for sustainable dividends and capital growth.

Buy Hold Sell: 6 sustainable dividend stocks

Dividend sustainability has become front-of-mind for investors as Australian companies grapple with the short-term hit to earnings and payouts as a result of COVID-19 and a host of long-term issues such as competition and structural changes in consumer behaviour.

In this episode, Jessica Amir of Bell Direct sits down with Neil Margolis of Merlon Capital and Michael O'Neill from Investors Mutual to discuss six income candidates and whether they can be trusted for sustainable dividends.

They include 1) Fortescue Metals Group - Which is facing questions around how long elevated iron ore prices can last; 2) Telstra - Whose current dividend is under doubt due to earnings and margin pressures; 3) Medibank Private - A business swimming in cash but contending structural issues impacting insurance affordability; and 4) AMP - A company that's been in the news for all the wrong reasons. Neil and Michael also each bring their one top stock idea for sustainable dividends, trading at an attractive valuation right now.

Visit Livewire Markets for the edited transcript and video for this episode, plus more great content.

Note: This interview was recorded on 23 September 2020.