Buy Hold Sell, by Livewire Markets

Buy Hold Sell: 3 under-the-radar stocks (and 2 overcrowded darlings)

There's something to be said about discovering a gem of a stock the rest of the market missed. Like uncovering a musician before the world does, or being the first to watch a TV series before everyone else's eyes are glued to the same screen. It's a great feeling - and one that may leave you asking, 'Am I better than everyone else?' 

In most cases, probably not. But to help you on your way, this episode is dedicated to covering under-covered and undiscovered stocks. This anonymous writer is in the camp that everyone deserves a little confidence boost right now - particularly you, my dear reader. 

Today's hunting ground is small-cap stocks - given these are typically less covered by analysts. The stocks in this episode have market caps between $500 million and $850 million, so they are also less likely to be in the playing fields of the big fund managers and are more likely to not be on investors' radars. 

Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by LSN Capital Partners' Nick Sladen and Elston Asset Management's Justin Woerner for their analysis of these under-the-radar stocks. 

Plus, they also each name an overcrowded small-cap darling that could be due for a sell-off from here. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday, 24 April 2024. 

Buy Hold Sell: Demand wave to power future-facing commodities (and 4 stocks to ride the wave)

As the name would suggest, future-facing commodities are those that will carry humanity forward as we take on the momentous task of decarbonising the world.  

These are the commodities that are essential to the energy transition, including lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, graphite and copper. 

Much of the demand for these commodities is expected to be driven by the uptake of electric vehicles over the next two decades, with governments around the world - including Europe, China, the US and Australia - providing incentives for people to 'go electric'. 

We have already seen spikes in demand (and subsequent supply responses) for many of these commodities. And while the journey will likely remain volatile, on the whole, the wind only seems to be blowing one way; 

• Most analysts predict that global demand for lithium will double or even triple by 2030, according to Deloitte
• Demand for battery-grade nickel is expected to increase 50% by 2030, according to Deloitte
• Cobalt consumption over the last decade has tripled globally due to rising demand for electronics and EVs, and the demand is set to double again by 2035
• Macquarie forecasts a doubling in graphite supply over the next decade but predicts a deficit in 2025 due to demand from the EV market
• Demand from the EV market is expected to take up more than 60% of global graphite demand by the end of 2030
• S&P Global Market Intelligence projected in 2022 that annual global copper demand will nearly double from 25 million to roughly 50 million tonnes by 2035 

However you slice it, demand for these commodities is only going to grow and, in most instances, the question is whether or not supply will keep that. That will create a host of opportunities. 

As such, we sat down with Lowell Resources’ John Forwood & Acorn Capital’s Rick Squire, to get their take on what's hot and what's not when it comes to future facing metals. 

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, 10 April 2024. You can watch the video, listen to the podcast, or read an edited transcript below.

4 undiscovered gems as gold prices hit record highs

There are a couple of hot commodities right now, including uranium, cocoa, and gold. The latter exploded higher in February this year after being stuck in a range for the best part of five years.

Several reasons have been posited for gold's renaissance, the primary being that investors who expect the Fed to cut rates have been buying the commodity. 

A low-interest rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and weighs on the US dollar, making bullion cheaper for non-US buyers. 

One of the other reasons has been the buying of central banks - led by the People's Bank of China - to ease reliance on US dollars. Central banks have always viewed gold as a store of value and a haven in times of economic volatility - the type that might be precipitated by dramatically changing rate expectations. 

Whatever the reason for the rally, gold is hot and investors have been keenly focused on the opportunities presented by the rich assortment of gold stocks available on the ASX. 

To help you sort the wheat from the chaff, we sat down with Lowell Resources’ John Forwood and Acorn Capital’s Rick Squire for their top picks and outlook on the gold sector.

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, 10 April 2024.

Is there still upside to uranium? (and 4 stocks fundies are buying)

The law of supply and demand determines commodity prices. Currently, the uranium market is undersupplied, just as more nuclear reactors requiring fuel are being brought online. Some reports suggest the market will remain in structural undersupply for more than a decade.

It’s one thing for an underlying commodity to rally. Where the rubber meets the road for investors, however, is in equities. In that vein, we engaged Rick Squire from Acorn Capital and John Forwood from Lowell Resources to discuss the risks and opportunities in uranium. They also share a couple of stocks that appear overpriced, as well as four names they would buy today.

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, 10 April 2024.

The stocks headed for the ASX 20 (and 2 on the way out)

Over the last five, 10, 15 and 20 years, mid-cap stocks have managed to outperform both their large and small-cap counterparts. They've done this with the same volatility as small caps and, over the last decade, they've grown earnings at around 7.5% per annum - more than double that of the small and large-cap indices. 

So, why is this? According to Blackwattle's Tim Riordan and Auscap's Will Mumford, it all comes down to quality. These businesses are more likely to have established themselves with some sort of competitive advantage and have more of a growth runway ahead of them to expand globally. 

Meanwhile, two-thirds of the ASX 20 - Australia's largest listed businesses - are either major banks, reliant on China's iron ore demand, or exposed to the declining long-term outlook for oil and gas. 

So in this episode, Livewire's James Marlay was joined by Riordan and Mumford for a look at two companies that could push these incumbents out of the ASX 20. 

Plus, they also provide a deep dive into the mid-cap segment of the market, the positive factors that investors should look out for, and some of the red flags to have on your radars. 

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 27 March 2024. You can read an edited transcript below. 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-stocks-headed-for-the-asx-20-and-2-on-the-way-out/ 

Buy Hold Sell: 3 stocks ready for a rebound (and 2 due for a sell-off)

Unless you've been living under a rock, you've probably noticed it's been an incredibly strong six months for global markets.

The ASX 200, for instance, has rebounded 13% over the past six months, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have soared 23% and 24% respectively over that same period.

Elsewhere in the world, the UK's FTSE 100 has lifted 6% in six months, Japan's Nikkei has skyrocketed 28%, and India's Nifty 50 has enjoyed a 15% bump. All in all, the MSCI World Index (USD) is now 21% higher than it was six months ago. And to think, we haven't even seen Fed rate cuts yet!

So, in this episode, Livewire's James Marlay was joined by Blackwattle Investment Partners' Tim Riordan and Auscap Asset Management's Will Mumford for their analysis of three stocks that are yet to participate in the market rally.

And just because you can't truly appreciate the highs without the lows (and the good without the bad), we also asked our fund managers to name one soaring darling that they believe will soon run out of steam.

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 27 March 2024. You can read an edited transcript below.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-3-stocks-ready-for-a-rebound-and-2-due-for-a-sell-off

Timecodes:

0:00 - Intro

0:30 - Is Orora a buy, hold or sell?

2:54 - Is Endeavour Group a buy, hold or sell?

4:33 - Is Arcadium Lithium a buy, hold or sell?

7:02 - Tim Riordan's stock that will run out of steam

7:53 - Will Mumford's stock that will run out of steam

Buy Hold Sell: 5 undervalued founder-led stocks

In 2016, Bain & Company found that the companies most successful at maintaining profit growth over the long term disproportionately were companies where the founder was still running the business, still involved on its board, or where the principles the founder originally put in place persisted.

That's because founders possessed these three traits:

1. Business insurgency - A unique feature or capability that gives a business purpose, waging war on industry norms on behalf of its clients.
2. A "front line obsession" - A focus on the details at the front line and culture.
3. The "owner's mindset" - Possessing the speed to act quickly and taking personal responsibility for risk and cost. 

So, which founder-led stocks are flashing buy signals on the ASX? 

In this episode, Livewire's James Marlay was joined by Blackwattle's Tim Riordan and Auscap's Will Mumford to find out. 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 27 March 2024. 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-undervalued-founder-led-stocks

10 adviser-approved ETFs for 2024

By now, you’re probably aware of the stats highlighting the growth of ETFs in Australia (if not, they’re available here). 

Alright, alright already, we get it… they’re very popular.

But just because something is popular, doesn’t always mean it is good, or that people know how to use it effectively (think Q-tips, running shoes, and Taylor Swift songs).

So, for this latest episode of Buy Hold Sell, we reached out to two advisors - people actually using these products in client portfolios – to get their take on the good, the bad, and the ugly across various factors and investment styles.

Be warned: When long-time friends Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners and Andrew Wielandt from DP Wealth Advisory are together in the same room, there are often a few laughs to be had.

But you will also get practical and sound guidance, free from any spin – these two call it how they see it. So make sure to watch the video to find out Adam and Andrew's top ETFs for growth, income and value - as well as some they're cautious on. 

Answering the internet's most common ETF questions

Around 51% of Australians (or 10.2 million people) hold investments outside their homes and superannuation, according to the ASX. Of these investors, around 20% (or 2 million people) use exchange-traded funds (or ETFs) - up from 15% in 2020.

Investor interest in low-cost, liquid and diversified ETFs has seen assets under management in the industry explode over the last decade, with its market cap now reaching close to $190 billion. In fact, in the last 12 months alone, the market cap of the Australian ETF industry has surged 35.5% (or by $49.6 billion).

Given more investors are using ETFs than ever before, Livewire decided it would be worthwhile to go back to basics, reaching out to two ETF aficionados for their top tricks and tips on investing in these listed vehicles.

In this episode, Shaw and Partners' Adam Dawes and DP Wealth Advisory's Andrew Wielandt answer the internet's most common questions on ETFs. Plus, they also each name the one ETF they believe "rules them all". Note:

This episode was filmed on Wednesday 13 March 2024. You can read an edited transcript below.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/answering-the-internet-s-most-common-etf-questions 

Buy Hold Sell: Your top-tipped ETFs for 2024

There are now more than two million Australians using exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to invest, an increase of 7% compared to 2022 (according to Betashares). 

As of the end of February, there was $189.4 billion invested across 359 ETFs, and with BlackRock estimating the market could more than double by 2027, it seems there's no stopping the explosive growth of the low-cost, easily accessible ETF market. 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Shaw and Partners Adam Dawes and DP Wealth Advisory's Andrew Wielandt for their analysis of Livewire and Market Index readers' top-tipped ETFs for 2024. 

For most of your ETFs, our financial advisers provide similar calls - but there's one in particular that has them divided - and it's a doozy. 

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 13 March 2024. You can read the edited transcript below. 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-your-top-tipped-etfs-for-2024 

 

Timecodes: 

• 0:00 - Intro
• 0:31 - Is the Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ) a buy, hold or sell?
• 1:36 - Is the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS) a buy, hold or sell?
• 2:48 - Is the Betashares Global Cybersecurity ETF (ASX: HACK) a buy, hold or sell?
• 4:14 - Is the VanEck MSCI International Quality ETF (ASX: QUAL) a buy, hold or sell?
• 5:24 - Is the iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV) a buy, hold or sell?
• 6:38 - Is the Vaneck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (ASX: MOAT) a buy, hold or sell?
• 8:05 - Is the Global X Fang+ ETF (ASX: FANG) a buy, hold or sell?
• 9:55 - Is the Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF (ASX: VHY) a buy, hold or sell?
• 11:49 - Is the Global X Physical Gold ETF (ASX: GOLD) a buy, hold or sell?
• 12:58 - Is the Betashares Global Uranium ETF (ASX: URNM) a buy, hold or sell?