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Buy Hold Sell is a fast-paced business and investing podcast, bringing you stock tips and investment ideas every Friday and every second Monday. Join us as we quiz Australia’s top fund managers and investment analysts on a range of local and global stocks, as well as ETFs. Learn about the forces moving equities markets, the potholes you should avoid, and the companies going from strength to strength - all in 10 minutes or less. Whether you are new to investing or a seasoned professional, this podcast will get you thinking differently about markets.
Episodes
Wednesday Jan 17, 2024
Wednesday Jan 17, 2024
As part of Livewire's Outlook Series for 2024, James Marlay and Ally Selby challenged 12 of Australia’s most successful investors to each name one company that brings that “sleep at night” assurance so many of us are seeking right now.
In many cases, their responses yielded well-known stalwarts of the investment world, including names in listed property, infrastructure and materials. But a couple of smaller companies, including those in technology, were also in the mix.
Our featured fund managers include (in order of appearance):
- Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management
- Matthew Haupt, Wilson Asset Management
- Emma Fisher, Airlie Funds Management
- Chris Stott, 1851 Capital
- Joel Fleming, Yarra Capital Management
- Vihari Ross, Antipodes
- Marc Whittaker, IML
- Francyne Mu, Franklin Templeton
- Bob Desmond, Claremont Global
- Daniel Sullivan, Janus Henderson
- Mary Manning, Alphinity Investment Management
- Dr Philipp Hofflin, Lazard Asset Management
Note: The information provided is not intended to be a recommendation. Please do your own research and seek advice from a professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.
These interviews were filmed on Tuesday, 12 December 2023. You can read an edited transcript below:
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/14-stocks-to-help-you-sleep-at-night
Tuesday Jan 16, 2024
Tuesday Jan 16, 2024
No great investor ever got to where they are now by going with consensus.
If you believed the analyst consensus of 2022, 2023 was going to be another challenging year for asset allocation as economies and markets were forced to come to terms with inflation and interest rates remaining higher for longer. Many analysts continued to have a deep US-led recession and smooth Chinese reopening as their base case.
Some even dared to venture that the return on expensive equities would trend downwards while bonds would do the heavy lifting.
Well, that did not happen. And because of what actually occurred, research houses are repricing their views for 2024. The analyst consensus thinks equities will now rise 10% over the next 12 months, bond yields have peaked, a recession is now all but off the table, and the savage rate-hiking cycle may be replaced by an equally savage rate-cutting cycle.
So, will the consensus be proven wrong again? In this video, 12 of Australia's leading fund managers share with us a widely-held view they think will be proven wrong in 2024. From interest rates to weight loss drugs and the M&A landscape, there are plenty of places for investors to have The Street's view challenged.
Our featured experts include (in order of appearance):
- Matthew Haupt, Wilson Asset Management
- Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management
- Vihari Ross, Antipodes
- Daniel Sullivan, Janus Henderson
- Francyne Mu, Franklin Templeton
- Emma Fisher, Airlie Funds Management
- Marc Whittaker, IML
- Dr Philipp Hofflin, Lazard Asset Management
- Joel Fleming, Yarra Capital Management
- Bob Desmond, Claremont Global
- Chris Stott, 1851 Capital
- Mary Manning, Alphinity Investment Management
Note: These interviews were filmed on Tuesday 12 December 2023. You can read an edited transcript below:
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/12-things-investors-could-get-wrong-in-2024
Thursday Jan 11, 2024
Thursday Jan 11, 2024
There have been many opportunities to buy some of the market's favourite stocks at cheaper prices in recent years.
Many fortunes were made buying these discounted darlings at the bottom of the COVID-19 crash, and then again during the latter months of 2022 and throughout 2023 as markets looked out to the end of the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate hiking cycle.
Take REA Group (ASX: REA), for example. The stock's share price crashed around 37% during the COVID crisis, before soaring 134% to reach new highs by the end of 2021. Over the next six months, it would cascade 43% before rebounding 88% over the past year and a half.
And while we may not have a crystal ball to know when the next correction or crash may occur, it's worthwhile having a list of stocks in your back pocket to buy when sentiment swings to a new low.
So as part of Livewire's Outlook Series for 2024, we spoke to 12 of Australia's brightest investment minds for the one stock they would buy if it ever sold off.
Unsurprisingly, there were a few recurrent ideas in the mix, including three fund managers heralding REA Group as the best stock on the ASX, and two selecting Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) as the stock they would buy at a cheaper price.
Our featured fund managers include (in order of appearance):
- Emma Fisher, Airlie Funds Management
- Bob Desmond, Claremont Global
- Joel Fleming, Yarra Capital Management
- Francyne Mu, Franklin Templeton
- Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management
- Chris Stott, 1851 Capital
- Daniel Sullivan, Janus Henderson
- Vihari Ross, Antipodes
- Dr Philipp Hofflin, Lazard Asset Management
- Marc Whittaker, IML
- Mary Manning, Alphinity Investment Management
- Matthew Haupt, Wilson Asset Management
Note: The information provided is not intended to be a recommendation. Please do your own research and seek advice from a professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.
You can read an edited transcript below. These interviews were filmed on Tuesday, 12 December 2023.
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/9-of-the-best-stocks-to-buy-in-a-sell-off
Wednesday Jan 10, 2024
Wednesday Jan 10, 2024
Sometimes it’s the things ticking over in the background that can cause the greatest chaos in markets.
Take an unidentified virus circulating in a lesser-known city in China back in late 2019. Or the rise in populism that resulted in Brexit back in 2017. Just a few years earlier, the debt problems in Greece threatened the ongoing existence of the European Union.
We finished 2023 with equity markets on a high, while bond markets are pricing for a soft landing.
What underestimated nasties in today’s world could be the biggest market disruptors in 2024? After all, there’s a reason the famed Doomsday Clock still stands at 90 seconds to midnight (i.e. a catastrophic disaster to the world is imminent).
We spoke to 12 fund managers to see what they viewed as the most underappreciated risks for the year ahead. While none of them predict COVID 2.0 (at this stage...), some of their concerns might take you by surprise.
Our featured fund managers include (in order of appearance):
- Mary Manning, Alphinity Investment Management
- Marc Whittaker, IML
- Vihari Ross, Antipodes
- Chris Stott, 1851 Capital
- Joel Fleming, Yarra Capital Management
- Emma Fisher, Airlie Funds Management
- Daniel Sullivan, Janus Henderson Investors
- Dr Philipp Hofflin, Lazard Asset Management
- Francyne Mu, Franklin Templeton
- Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management
- Matthew Haupt, Wilson Asset Management
- Bob Desmond, Claremont Global
Note: You can read an edited transcript below. These interviews were filmed on Tuesday, 12 December 2023.
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-10-most-underappreciated-risks-in-2024
Tuesday Jan 09, 2024
Tuesday Jan 09, 2024
They say you should never run from a bear. And, strangely, nothing typifies this like investors' response to the macroeconomic hazards, rising geopolitical tensions, and the myriad of other risks that continue to face the market.
Worried that your portfolio will continue to falter as the Magnificent Seven soar even higher? Fear not, my friend. The experts tip that this should broaden out to a wider rally in more sectors and stocks.
Sick of small and microcap's continued underperformance? Worry no more, 2024 could see the reversal you have been praying for.
In this video, 12 of Australia's brightest investment minds share why they are not shying away from markets in 2024, including why one market veteran believes that the ASX could be in for double-digit returns over the next decade.
Our featured fund managers include (in order of appearance):
- Chris Stott, 1851 Capital
- Mary Manning, Alphinity Investment Management
- Joel Fleming, Yarra Capital Management
- Vihari Ross, Antipodes
- Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management
- Dr Philipp Hofflin, Lazard Asset Management
- Marc Whittaker, IML
- Bob Desmond, Claremont Global
- Emma Fisher, Airlie Funds Management
- Daniel Sullivan, Janus Henderson
- Francyne Mu, Franklin Templeton
- Matthew Haupt, Wilson Asset Management
Note: The information provided is not intended to be a recommendation. Please do your own research and seek advice from a professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.
You can read an edited transcript below. These interviews were filmed on Tuesday, 12 December 2023.
Monday Jan 08, 2024
Monday Jan 08, 2024
How are Australia's brightest investment minds investing as we kick off the new year?
Livewire has assembled an exclusive roll card of 12 of the country's finest global and local equities investors for their highest conviction stock picks for the year ahead.
This includes Alphinity's Mary Manning, whose top stock last year delivered a whopping return of 86% in 2023 (the average return of the stock picks last year was 36.73%), as well as star stockpickers Emma Fisher and Chris Stott, industry legends Dr Philipp Hofflin and Bob Desmond, and many more.
So, without further ado, sit back, relax and enjoy the most anticipated list of stocks for 2024. And as always, do your own research before making any investment decisions of your own.
Our featured fund managers include (in order of appearance):
- Mary Manning, Alphinity Investment Management
- Marc Whittaker, IML
- Emma Fisher, Airlie Funds Management
- Dr Philipp Hofflin, Lazard Asset Management
- Joel Fleming, Yarra Capital Management
- Matthew Haupt, Wilson Asset Management
- Chris Stott, 1851 Capital
- Francyne Mu, Franklin Templeton
- Bob Desmond, Claremont Global
- Daniel Sullivan, Janus Henderson
- Vihari Ross, Antipodes
- Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management
Note: We would like to thank the fund managers listed above for sharing their top ideas for 2024 in the spirit of the Outlook Series. All of the fund managers featured in this series run diversified portfolios and do not invest solely in the stocks mentioned below. This list is not, nor is it intended to be, a set of recommendations. Please do your own research and seek advice from a professional before making any investment decisions of your own. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.
You can read an edited transcript below. These interviews were filmed on Tuesday, 12 December 2023.
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-1-stock-picks-for-2024
Friday Dec 22, 2023
Friday Dec 22, 2023
As we round out another year of Buy Hold Sell, we're taking the chains off.
Normally, we try to keep things civil by putting a handful of stocks to our guests and asking for their analysis. Whilst guests don't always agree, at least they don't have to analyse each other's highest conviction picks.
In essence, the stocks are like Switzerland - neutral. But what fun is that?
To spice things up a bit, we’ve asked our guests to bring along three stocks they think could surprise investors in 2024 - and because two views make a market, they will be analysing each others’ stocks. Juicy.
So, sit back, relax, and enjoy this final episode of 2023, featuring First Sentier’s David Wilson and Atlas Funds’ Hugh Dive.
Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 13 December 2023.
Thursday Dec 21, 2023
Thursday Dec 21, 2023
If there is one lesson markets can bestow on their followers, it's humility. Not even the world's most respected economists get every macro call right, nor do the world's market animals consistently pick only winning stocks.
Getting things wrong, making mistakes, and replaying these (often) haunting moments in our heads is intrinsically human. But admitting when we get it wrong, and learning from these mistakes, is a particularly admirable skill.
At the outset of 2023, many predicted we would see a recession during the year. Equities, these market oracles warned, would tumble to fresh, painful lows. That, as we now know, has not happened. Instead, a handful of stocks have helped the S&P 500 push around 24% higher, while the ASX 200 is looking like it may end 2023 with close to double-digit gains.
It's fair to say then that investors, both professional and punter alike, would have made a few mistakes throughout the year. This anonymous writer sure has.
So, in the first of our Outlook Series videos for 2024, 12 of the country's top fund managers candidly reveal the positions and macro calls that have contributed to many a sleepless night in 2023. Plus, they also share what they have learnt from these mistakes so that you can become a better investor yourself over the year ahead.
Our featured fund managers include:
- Emma Fisher, Airlie Funds Management
- Daniel Sullivan, Janus Henderson Investors
- Chris Stott, 1851 Capital
- Mary Manning, Alphinity Investment Management
- Matthew Haupt, Wilson Asset Management
- Marc Whittaker, IML
- Francyne Mu, Franklin Templeton
- Bob Desmond, Claremont Global
- Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management
- Dr Philipp Hofflin, Lazard Asset Management
- Joel Fleming, Yarra Capital Management
- Vihari Ross, Antipodes
Note: You can read an edited transcript below. These interviews were filmed on Tuesday 12 December 2023.
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/ouch-12-painful-calls-from-2023/
Monday Dec 18, 2023
Monday Dec 18, 2023
We all know 2023 has been a challenging year for investors. And that’s not necessarily because overall returns have been low, but rather because of the extremes we have seen.
There have been significant bouts of volatility, although volatility overall is near all-time lows.
This is particularly true for the US, where markets have rallied but only seven stocks have done the heavy lifting. Interest rates have surged but nothing has broken... yet.
As for the ASX, if not for the 600-odd point rally off the late October low, this year would have been best described as a sideways grind. As it stands, the index is up nearly 7% year-to-date, things are looking decidedly more bullish, and we may just get a fabled Santa Claus rally to top things off.
That’s the kind of year it has been – one punctuated by major trends and then smaller countertrends that exist within them. To invest well, you had to know the macro and the micro, consider the extremes, and stay nimble. Most of all, you had to pay attention.
With all this in mind, in this episode, we’ve asked our guests to consider the extremes by looking at the dogs and darlings of the ASX in 2023. To do that, we’re joined by First Sentier’s David Wilson and Atlas Funds Management’s Hugh Dive.
Plus, we also ask our guests to name one darling (and one dog) for the year ahead.
Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, 13 December 2023.
Friday Dec 15, 2023
Friday Dec 15, 2023
Currently, there is a 22% short interest in fallen lithium darling Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS). This is up from around 3.7% a year ago - meaning that today, 22% of the shares in this hard rock lithium miner are shorted.
I know what you are thinking... Oh, anonymous writer! Why should I care? After all, Pilbara's share price has sunk around 30% over the last few months, and lithium spodumene prices have suffered a far worse fate.
Well, if there is anything we can take away from the great GameStop saga, it's that short squeezes come heavy and fast. And, even a small inkling of positive news can result in a sharp rise in share price, forcing hedge funds and traders to close out their positions to avoid painful losses.
So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby put it to First Sentier's David Wilson and Atlas Funds' Hugh Dive for some contrarian analysis of the ASX's most shorted stocks.
Plus, they also each name two stocks with big short interests that they are currently buying.
Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 13 December 2023. You can read an edited transcript below: