Buy Hold Sell, by Livewire Markets

The #1 stock picks for 2024

How are Australia's brightest investment minds investing as we kick off the new year?

Livewire has assembled an exclusive roll card of 12 of the country's finest global and local equities investors for their highest conviction stock picks for the year ahead. 

This includes Alphinity's Mary Manning, whose top stock last year delivered a whopping return of 86% in 2023 (the average return of the stock picks last year was 36.73%), as well as star stockpickers Emma Fisher and Chris Stott, industry legends Dr Philipp Hofflin and Bob Desmond, and many more. 

So, without further ado, sit back, relax and enjoy the most anticipated list of stocks for 2024. And as always, do your own research before making any investment decisions of your own. 

Our featured fund managers include (in order of appearance): 

• Mary Manning, Alphinity Investment Management  
• Marc Whittaker, IML 
• Emma Fisher, Airlie Funds Management 
• Dr Philipp Hofflin, Lazard Asset Management 
• Joel Fleming, Yarra Capital Management 
• Matthew Haupt, Wilson Asset Management 
• Chris Stott, 1851 Capital 
• Francyne Mu, Franklin Templeton 
• Bob Desmond, Claremont Global 
• Daniel Sullivan, Janus Henderson 
• Vihari Ross, Antipodes 
• Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management 

Note: We would like to thank the fund managers listed above for sharing their top ideas for 2024 in the spirit of the Outlook Series. All of the fund managers featured in this series run diversified portfolios and do not invest solely in the stocks mentioned below. This list is not, nor is it intended to be, a set of recommendations. Please do your own research and seek advice from a professional before making any investment decisions of your own. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. 

You can read an edited transcript below. These interviews were filmed on Tuesday, 12 December 2023.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-1-stock-picks-for-2024

Buy Hold Sell: 6 stocks that could surprise in 2024

As we round out another year of Buy Hold Sell, we're taking the chains off. 

Normally, we try to keep things civil by putting a handful of stocks to our guests and asking for their analysis. Whilst guests don't always agree, at least they don't have to analyse each other's highest conviction picks. 

In essence, the stocks are like Switzerland - neutral. But what fun is that?

To spice things up a bit, we’ve asked our guests to bring along three stocks they think could surprise investors in 2024 - and because two views make a market, they will be analysing each others’ stocks. Juicy. 

So, sit back, relax, and enjoy this final episode of 2023, featuring First Sentier’s David Wilson and Atlas Funds’ Hugh Dive.

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 13 December 2023. 

Ouch! 12 painful calls from 2023

If there is one lesson markets can bestow on their followers, it's humility. Not even the world's most respected economists get every macro call right, nor do the world's market animals consistently pick only winning stocks. 

Getting things wrong, making mistakes, and replaying these (often) haunting moments in our heads is intrinsically human. But admitting when we get it wrong, and learning from these mistakes, is a particularly admirable skill. 

At the outset of 2023, many predicted we would see a recession during the year. Equities, these market oracles warned, would tumble to fresh, painful lows. That, as we now know, has not happened. Instead, a handful of stocks have helped the S&P 500 push around 24% higher, while the ASX 200 is looking like it may end 2023 with close to double-digit gains.  

It's fair to say then that investors, both professional and punter alike, would have made a few mistakes throughout the year. This anonymous writer sure has. 

So, in the first of our Outlook Series videos for 2024, 12 of the country's top fund managers candidly reveal the positions and macro calls that have contributed to many a sleepless night in 2023. Plus, they also share what they have learnt from these mistakes so that you can become a better investor yourself over the year ahead. 

Our featured fund managers include: 

• Emma Fisher, Airlie Funds Management 
• Daniel Sullivan, Janus Henderson Investors
• Chris Stott, 1851 Capital 
• Mary Manning, Alphinity Investment Management 
• Matthew Haupt, Wilson Asset Management 
• Marc Whittaker, IML 
• Francyne Mu, Franklin Templeton
• Bob Desmond, Claremont Global 
• Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management 
• Dr Philipp Hofflin, Lazard Asset Management 
• Joel Fleming, Yarra Capital Management 
• Vihari Ross, Antipodes 

Note: You can read an edited transcript below. These interviews were filmed on Tuesday 12 December 2023. 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/ouch-12-painful-calls-from-2023/

 

The dogs and darlings of the ASX in 2023 (and what to back in 2024)

We all know 2023 has been a challenging year for investors. And that’s not necessarily because overall returns have been low, but rather because of the extremes we have seen.

There have been significant bouts of volatility, although volatility overall is near all-time lows.  

This is particularly true for the US, where markets have rallied but only seven stocks have done the heavy lifting. Interest rates have surged but nothing has broken... yet.

As for the ASX, if not for the 600-odd point rally off the late October low, this year would have been best described as a sideways grind. As it stands, the index is up nearly 7% year-to-date, things are looking decidedly more bullish, and we may just get a fabled Santa Claus rally to top things off.

That’s the kind of year it has been – one punctuated by major trends and then smaller countertrends that exist within them. To invest well, you had to know the macro and the micro, consider the extremes, and stay nimble. Most of all, you had to pay attention.

With all this in mind, in this episode, we’ve asked our guests to consider the extremes by looking at the dogs and darlings of the ASX in 2023. To do that, we’re joined by First Sentier’s David Wilson and Atlas Funds Management’s Hugh Dive.

Plus, we also ask our guests to name one darling (and one dog) for the year ahead.

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, 13 December 2023.

Buy Hold Sell: 5 of the ASX’s most-shorted stocks (and 2 that are big buys)

Currently, there is a 22% short interest in fallen lithium darling Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS). This is up from around 3.7% a year ago - meaning that today, 22% of the shares in this hard rock lithium miner are shorted. 

I know what you are thinking... Oh, anonymous writer! Why should I care? After all, Pilbara's share price has sunk around 30% over the last few months, and lithium spodumene prices have suffered a far worse fate. 

Well, if there is anything we can take away from the great GameStop saga, it's that short squeezes come heavy and fast. And, even a small inkling of positive news can result in a sharp rise in share price, forcing hedge funds and traders to close out their positions to avoid painful losses. 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby put it to First Sentier's David Wilson and Atlas Funds' Hugh Dive for some contrarian analysis of the ASX's most shorted stocks. 

Plus, they also each name two stocks with big short interests that they are currently buying. 

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 13 December 2023. You can read an edited transcript below: 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-of-the-asx-s-most-shorted-stocks-and-2-that-are-big-buys/ 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 crackers for Christmas and beyond

The silly season is finally here! So, we thought we'd take a look at some stocks investors could add to their Christmas stockings and hold throughout 2024.

 

After all, nothing spreads joy quite like a few winning stocks. Take Kelsian, Nexgen Energy and CSR, for example, which have seen their share prices rise 20%, 50% and 27% respectively since the beginning of the year.

 

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by IML's Simon Conn and Firetrail's Eleanor Swanson for their analysis of these three stocks. Plus, they also each name one stock sure to bring investors some holiday spirit.

 

You can read an edited transcript here: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-crackers-for-christmas-and-beyond 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 29 November 2023.  

 

 

Has this latest inflation print greenlit an ASX Santa Rally?

Last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics gave the RBA (and investors) an early Christmas present. It was revealed that the monthly consumer price index (CPI) indicator rose 4.9% in the 12 months to October 2023, down from 5.6% in September. 

This came in below economists' estimates, who had projected a 5.2% rise over the period. Hallelujah! 

It caps off what was already a good month for equity investors, with the All Ordinaries and its miniature elf helper, the Small Ordinaries, rising 4.2% and 6.6% respectively since the beginning of November. 

So can investors expect a fabled Santa Rally into the New Year? And if so, which stocks should they be stuffing into their Christmas stockings (and which should they be crossing off their lists?)

To find out, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by IML's Simon Conn and Firetrail's Eleanor Swanson - who answered these questions and more.

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 29 November 2023. You can read an edited transcript below: 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/has-this-latest-inflation-print-greenlit-an-asx-santa-rally/

Buy Hold Sell: 5 stocks for your naughty list in 2024

He’s always watching. He knows who has been naughty and who has been nice. He makes his watchlists. He doesn’t need to check them twice.

 

No, I’m not talking about Santa – he’s far too forgiving. I’m talking about Mr Market.

 

With the end of the year fast approaching (my goodness, it’s already December) it’s time to look back at those stocks that have spent the bulk of the year in the naughty corner.

 

These stocks have been punished by Mr Market all year and will likely be receiving a lump of coal for their troubles.

 

Nothing cleanses like January 1, however, and the question begs: Will these stocks grow wings and rise like a phoenix from the ashes, or are their problems terminal, consigning them to another annus horribilis?

 

To answer those questions, Livewire’s Ally Selby is joined by Simon Conn from IML and Eleanor Swanson from Firetrail, who analyse three of the market's poorest-performing stocks from 2023. 

 

Plus, they also name one stock on their naughty lists for the year ahead, and what would need to happen for our experts to change their thesis and for the stock to become a buy. 

 

Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 29 November 2023. You can read the edited transcript below: 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-stocks-for-your-naughty-list-in-2024 

Buy Hold Sell: 5 low P/E stocks with top management teams

While there are many measures of valuation, a price-to-earnings ratio (or P/E ratio) is probably the most well-known.

It's a real bang for your buck ratio, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share - basically, helping you to assess its value compared to similar companies or a benchmark.

A low P/E ratio usually indicates a company is cheap, while a high P/E ratio indicates it is expensive.

As effective as P/E ratios are, they don't tell the whole story and sometimes companies trading on a low P/E can have serious flaws. Some discounted stocks are cheap for a reason, others present attractive buying opportunities at bargain prices.

One of the key ways to separate the wheat from the chaff is to look at management. Companies with stellar management teams - those who have the drive and business acumen to take a company to the next level - are more likely to be the darlings you are looking for.

So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Tyndall Asset Management's Jason Kim and Forager Funds Management's Steve Johnson for their analysis of three low P/E stocks with top-notch management teams.

Plus, they also each named one stock that they would be buying right now.

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 15 November 2023. You can read an edited transcript below: 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-low-pe-stocks-with-top-management-teams 

How Benjamin Graham would invest on the ASX

There are many famous fathers.

Hippocrates is the father of modern medicine, James Brown is the father of Soul, and Darth Vader is the father of Luke Skywalker.

But there is only one father of value investing, and that's none other than Benjamin Graham.

Graham, along with the oft-overlooked David Dodd, wrote the classic book on investing: The Intelligent Investor. It’s a staple for anyone who is serious about investing in general, and value investing in particular.

The central idea of the book is to approach investing with a long-term focus and to view stocks as ownership in a business, rather than mere pieces of paper to be traded.

The text also thoroughly covers the importance of in-depth analysis, risk management, and one of the most enduring principles – a margin of safety.

A margin of safety refers to buying a stock at a price below its intrinsic value, so as to provide protection against market gyrations.

So, how would the principles laid out The Intelligent Investor stack up today on the ASX?

To answer that question, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Forager Funds Management’s Steve Johnson and Tyndall Asset Management’s Jason Kim. 

 

Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 15 November 2023. You can read an edited transcript below. 

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/how-benjamin-graham-would-invest-on-the-asx/